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How Much Does Political Uncertainty Matter? The Case of Louisiana under Huey Long

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  • Mathy, Gabriel
  • Ziebarth, Nicolas L.

Abstract

We study the effect of political uncertainty on economic outcomes using the case of Huey Long's tenure as governor and senator of Louisiana during the Great Depression. Based on primary sources, we construct two well-established measures of uncertainty specifically for Louisiana: stock price volatility and newspaper mentions of terms related to “uncertainty” and the economy. Combining these uncertainty measures with employment data from the Census of Manufactures, we attempt to identify the effects of political uncertainty using the state of Mississippi as a control group. We find little support for a negative effect from political uncertainty in Huey Long's Louisiana.

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  • Mathy, Gabriel & Ziebarth, Nicolas L., 2017. "How Much Does Political Uncertainty Matter? The Case of Louisiana under Huey Long," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 90-126, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:77:y:2017:i:01:p:90-126_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
    3. Ali Kabiri & Harold James & John Landon-Lane & David Tuckett & Rickard Nyman, 2020. "The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934," CESifo Working Paper Series 8336, CESifo.
    4. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Jirasavetakul, La-Bhus, 2018. "Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey," CEPR Discussion Papers 13352, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jason Lennard, 2020. "Uncertainty and the Great Slump," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 844-867, August.
    6. Pencho Penchev, 2017. "Of the Essence and Meaning of Economic History," Proceedings of the Centre for Economic History Research, Centre for Economic History Research, vol. 2, pages 9-34, November.
    7. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    8. Miguel Morin, 2015. "The Labor Market Consequences of Electricity Adoption: Concrete Evidence from the Great Depression," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1554, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Nicolas L. Ziebarth, 2015. "The Great Depression Through the Eyes of the Census of Manufactures," Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(4), pages 185-194, October.
    10. Ali Kabiri & Harold James & John Landon‐Lane & David Tuckett & Rickard Nyman, 2023. "The role of sentiment in the US economy: 1920 to 1934," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 3-30, February.
    11. Schläger, Dan, 2024. "Unmasking the significance of uncertainty: a case study of the German interwar economy (1919-1935)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125837, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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