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Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Brown
  • Karl Taylor
  • Gaia Garino

    ()

  • Stephen Wheatley Price

Abstract

In this paper we show that optimistic financial expectations impact positively on both the uantity of debt and the growth in debt, at the individual and household levels. Our heoretical model shows that this association is predicted under a variety of plausible cenarios. In the empirical analysis we explore the determinants of debt and of growth in ebt using British data. We find convincing support for our theoretical priors and show that t is optimistic financial expectations per se that are important in influencing debt, rather han the accuracy of individuals’ predictions regarding their future financial situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Gaia Garino & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2003. "Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2004.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:03/5
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    File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/econ03-5.pdf
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    Keywords

    Debt; Financial Expectations; Inter-temporal Consumption; Random Effects; Tobit Estimator;

    JEL classification:

    • D18 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Protection
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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