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The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK


  • David G. Blanchflower
  • Conall MacCoille


This paper uses micro-data from three surveys for the UK to consider how individuals form inflation expectations. Generally, we find significant non-response bias in all surveys, with non-respondents especially likely to be young, female, less educated and with lower incomes. A number of demographic generalizations can be made based on the surveys. Inflation expectations rise with age, but the more highly educated and home owners tend to have lower inflation expectations. These groups are also more likely to be accurate in their estimates of official inflation twelve months ahead, and have less backward-looking expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • David G. Blanchflower & Conall MacCoille, 2009. "The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK," NBER Working Papers 15388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15388
    Note: ME

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Easaw, Joshy & Golinelli, Roberto & Malgarini, Marco, 2013. "What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Patrick A. Imam, 2015. "Shock from Graying: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 138-154, March.
    3. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:04:n:s0217590817400306 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. David-Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "News Consumption, Political Preferences, and Accurate Views on Inflation," Research Papers in Economics 2017-03, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    5. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio, 2011. "Expectations of inflation: The biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 834-845.
    6. Michael Debabrata Patra & Partha Ray, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in India; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 10/84, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ehrmann, Michael & Soudan, Michel & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Explaining EU Citizens' Trust in the ECB in Normal and Crisis Times," Economics Series 289, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    8. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany," Discussion Papers 27/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Ueno, Yuko, 2014. "Updating Behavior of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," CIS Discussion paper series 617, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield & Jaylson Jair da Silveira, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability with Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 255-279, December.
    11. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2013. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Using Interval-Coded Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 602-623, August.
    12. Lena Dräger & Ulrich Fritsche, 2013. "Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201308, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    13. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," Staff Working Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    14. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    15. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2017. "Measuring the Distributions of Public Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in the UK," MPRA Paper 76244, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Georganas, Sotiris & Healy, Paul J. & Li, Nan, 2014. "Frequency bias in consumers׳ perceptions of inflation: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 144-158.
    17. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Expectations and Macroeconomic Stability under Satisficing Learning," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2014_28, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    18. Simon Richards & Matthieu Verstraete, 2016. "Understanding Firms' Inflation Expectations Using the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6090, CESifo Group Munich.

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    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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