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Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?

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  • Thomas A. Garrett
  • Ruben Hernandez-Murillo
  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

This paper tests the ability of consumer sentiment to predict retail spending at the state level. The results here suggest that, although there is a significant relationship between sentiment measures and retail sales growth in several states, consumer sentiment exhibits only modest predictive power for future changes of retail spending. Measures of consumer sentiment, however, contain additional explanatory power aside from the information available in other indicators. We also find that by restricting our attention to fluctuations in retail sales that occur at the business cycle frequency we can uncover a significant relationship between consumer sentiment and retail sales growth in many additional states. In light of these results, we conclude that the practical value of sentiment indices to forecast consumer spending at the state level is, at best, limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Garrett & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?," Working Papers 2003-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zuzana Rakovska & Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Martin Hodula, 2020. "The Power of Sentiment: Irrational Beliefs of Households and Consumer Loan Dynamics," Working Papers 2020/10, Czech National Bank.
    2. Douglas Lamdin, 2008. "Does Consumer Sentiment Foretell Revolving Credit Use?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 279-288, June.
    3. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2007. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," Working Paper series 42_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    4. Bruno Albuquerque & Georgi Krustev, 2018. "Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(2), pages 459-481, June.
    5. Gelper, Sarah & Croux, Christophe, 2007. "Multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3319-3329, April.
    6. Edward M Feasel & Nobuyuki Kanazawa, 2013. "Sentiment toward Trading Partners and International Trade," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 309-327.
    7. Paul S. Calem & Matthew Cannon & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2011. "Credit cycle and adverse selection effects in consumer credit markets -- evidence from the HELOC market," Working Papers 11-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Claveria, Oscar & Pons, Ernest & Ramos, Raul, 2007. "Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-69.
    9. repec:rim:rimwps:42-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2016. "Does investor sentiment really matter?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 221-232.
    11. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2015. "Forecasting aggregate retail sales: The case of South Africa," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 66-79.
    13. Gizelis, Demetrios & Chowdhury, Shah, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 71243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn, 2014. "Does linkage fuel the fire? The transmission of financial stress across the markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 57-70.

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    Keywords

    Consumer behavior; Consumption (Economics); Economic indicators;
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