Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?
This paper tests the ability of consumer sentiment to predict retail spending at the state level. The results here suggest that, although there is a significant relationship between consumer sentiment measures and retail sales growth in several states, consumer sentiment exhibits only modest predictive power for future changes in retail spending. Measures of consumer sentiment, however, contain additional explanatory power beyond the information available in other indicators. By restricting attention to fluctuations in retail sales that occur at the business cycle frequency, the authors uncover a significant relationship between consumer sentiment and retail sales growth in many additional states. In light of these results, the authors conclude that the practical value of sentiment indices to forecast consumer spending at the state level is, at best, limited.
Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): Mar ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166|
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.stls.frb.org/research/order/pubform.html Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1998. "Improving macro-economic forecasts: The role of consumer confidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-81, March.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1998.
"Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure? a sentiment index horse race,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 59-78.
- Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1997. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure?: A sentiment index horse race," Research Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
- Allenby, Greg M & Jen, Lichung & Leone, Robert P, 1996. "Economic Trends and Being Trendy: The Influence of Consumer Confidence on Retail Fashion Sales," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 103-11, January.
- Matsusaka, John G & Sbordone, Argia M, 1995.
"Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(2), pages 296-318, April.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "Consumer attitudes: king for a day," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-15.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2005:i:mar:p:123-135:n:v.87no.2,pt.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.