IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2023i1p173-d1306342.html

Business Confidence in the Sustainable Manufacturing Sector in the Context of Production, Production Prices, and Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Alžbeta Suhányiová

    (Department of Business Management and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Kosice, Letná 9, 042 00 Kosice, Slovakia)

  • Ladislav Suhányi

    (Department of Marketing and Management, Tomori Pál College, Művelődés str. 21-27, 1223 Budapest, Hungary)

  • Michaela Kočišová

    (Department of Business Management and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Kosice, Letná 9, 042 00 Kosice, Slovakia)

Abstract

Business confidence can be a very important predictor of future development and sustainability in a selected industry. It is one of the economic sentiment indicators belonging to the most important indicators of the health of the economy. This paper examines the relationships between the Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) of the manufacturing sector and the production, production prices, and interest rates of two neighbouring countries, the Slovak Republic and Hungary. These relationships are examined within the manufacturing sector because it has long been the driving force of sustainable economic development and has significant spill-over effects on the other sectors of the economy. A cluster analysis is performed with the aim of positioning the selected countries into clusters within the OECD countries in relation to the examined variables. Multiple regression models were used to verify the mentioned relationships between variables, separately for each of the two analysed countries. The coefficients of determination are not too high (Slovakia 0.5 and Hungary 0.38), but in the case of sentiment, they reach higher values than in comparable research. Data from the freely available OECD database was used. It can be concluded that the results show positive relationships between the BCI and the production and long-term interest rates, and negative relationships between the BCI and the Producer Prices Index (PPI) and short-term interest rates. The relationship with the short-term interest rates cannot be confirmed in the case of Hungary. Other differences are also shown in that a higher PPI can negatively affect the BCI more intensively in Hungary (regression coefficient 0.18), and that in the case of the Slovak Republic, it appears that the level of influence of the long-term interest rates on the BCI is higher than that in Hungary (the difference between the regression coefficients is 0.27). Practical implications are stated for relevant institutions in the country in three areas: (1) in support of increasing production; (2) in the regulation and subsidization of input production costs; (3) in the stabilization of the lending behaviour of financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Alžbeta Suhányiová & Ladislav Suhányi & Michaela Kočišová, 2023. "Business Confidence in the Sustainable Manufacturing Sector in the Context of Production, Production Prices, and Interest Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:173-:d:1306342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/1/173/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/1/173/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Business Confidence and Business Tourism in Japan," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(01), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Anja Kukuvec & Harald Oberhofer, 2018. "The propagation of business sentiment within the European Union," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp257, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    3. Klein, Lawrence R. & Özmucur, Süleyman, 2010. "The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1453-1462, November.
    4. Monica Amici & Emmanuele Bobbio & Roberto Torrini, 2018. "Patterns of Convergence (Divergence) in the Euro Area: Profitability Versus Cost and Price Indicators," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 4(3), pages 367-384, November.
    5. Stephen Kirchner, 2020. "The Effect of Changes in Monetary Policy on Consumer and Business Confidence," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(1), pages 118-125, March.
    6. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
    8. Dejan Živkov & Jasmina Đurašković & Sanja Ljubenović, 2023. "Multiscale Interdependence Between Consumer and Producer Prices in Emerging Eastern European Countries," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(3), pages 319-341.
    9. Jean-Jacques Vanhaelen & Luc Dresse & Jan De Mulder, 2000. "The Belgian industrial confidence indicator: leading indicator of economic activity in the euro area ?," Working Paper Document 12, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Ali Kabiri & Harold James & John Landon-Lane & David Tuckett & Rickard Nyman, 2020. "The Role of Sentiment in the Economy: 1920 to 1934," CESifo Working Paper Series 8336, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deimante Teresiene & Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Yiyi Liao & Rasa Kanapickiene & Ruihui Pu & Siyan Hu & Xiao-Guang Yue, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    2. Dimitriou Dimitrios & Pappas Anastasios & Kazanas Thanassis & Kenourgios Dimitris, 2021. "Do confidence indicators lead Greek economic activity?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 1-15.
    3. Marcin Olkiewicz, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Indicators on the Evolution of Business Confidence during the COVID-19 Pandemic Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Aleksejs Melihovs & Svetlana Rusakova, 2005. "Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data," Working Papers 2005/04, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Gagea Mariana, 2012. "The Contribution Of Business Confidence Indicators In Short-Term Forecasting Of Economic Development," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 617-623, July.
    7. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Marta Necadova, 2019. "Changes in Economic Sentiment Indicators before and after Economic Crisis (Position of Visegrad Group and Germany in EU)," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 55-85.
    9. Chris Aylmer & Troy Gill, 2003. "Business Surveys and Economic Activity," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    11. James Ming Chen, 2017. "Systematic Risk in the Macrocosm," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, in: Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing, chapter 0, pages 239-274, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:658:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mr. Alvar Kangur, 2018. "Competitiveness and Wage Bargaining Reform in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2018/061, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87, October.
    15. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area: Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aimé Nono & Imad Rherrad, 2018. "Forecasting with Many Predictors: How Useful are National and International Confidence Data?," Cahiers de recherche 1814, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    17. Robert Skikiewicz & Krzysztof Blonski, 2018. "Economic Sentiment Level versus the Quality of Life in European Union Member States," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(4), pages 379-396.
    18. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
    19. Claro, Danny P & Júnior, José L. R. & Laban Neto, Sílvio A. & Lucci, Cíntia R. & Bolzani, Luciana C. & Carvalho, Marina D. de, 2009. "Índice de Confiança do Empresário de Pequenos e Médios Negócios no Brasil (IC-PMN): Metodologia e Resultados Preliminares," Insper Working Papers wpe_158, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    20. Hall, Stephen George & Roudoi, Andrei & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Lupu, Radu & Calin, Adrian Cantemir, 2014. "Lawrence R. Klein and the Economic Forecasting – A Survey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-14, March.
    21. Ali Al‐Eyd & Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2009. "Consumer Confidence Indices And Short‐Term Forecasting Of Consumption," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(1), pages 96-111, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:173-:d:1306342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.