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Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Development in Latvia Using Business and Consumer Survey Data

  • Aleksejs Melihovs

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Svetlana Rusakova

    (Bank of Latvia)

At any stage of an economic cycle, policy makers and production managers are to make decisions how to benefit from an economic upswing most, or how to mitigate the adverse effects of an economic downturn. An early evaluation of economic development trends in a country will lead to a more favourable translation of policy decisions into economic processes at both microeconomic and macroeconomic levels. An assessment of economic business cycles often involves business and consumer survey results as evidenced, for instance, by rich practices of the EU and other world countries. This paper examines the usefulness of indicators from business and consumer surveys in the short-term forecasting of Latvia's economic development.

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Paper provided by Latvijas Banka in its series Working Papers with number 2005/04.

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Date of creation: 14 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200504
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  1. Mourougane, Annabelle & Roma, Moreno, 2002. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Working Paper Series 0133, European Central Bank.
  2. Jason Bram & Sydney Ludvigson, 1997. "Does consumer confidence forecast household expenditure?: A sentiment index horse race," Research Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Paul Schreyer & Corinne Emery, 1996. "Short-Term Indicators: Using Qualitative Indicators to Update Production Indices," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 1996/3, OECD Publishing.
  4. Bruno, Giancarlo & Lupi, Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," MPRA Paper 42332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
  6. Lucia F. Dunn & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2006. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked to Manufacturing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 343-351, April.
  7. Croushore, Dean, 2005. "Do consumer-confidence indexes help forecast consumer spending in real time?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 435-450, December.
  8. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Löf, Mårten, 2003. "Business Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting the Macro Economy?," Working Paper 84, National Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Teresa Santero & Niels Westerlund, 1996. "Confidence Indicators and Their Relationship to Changes in Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 170, OECD Publishing.
  10. Ivan Roberts & John Simon, 2001. "What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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