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Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data

  • Bruno Giancarlo

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

  • Lupi Claudio

    ()

    (University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS, Faculty of Economics)

In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business cyclical indicators to be used as predictors for the industrial production in France and Germany; as far as Italy is concerned, forecasts are produced using a model that in the recent past proved to be able to produce accurate forecasts up to six months ahead. In order to derive quantitative predictors from the business surveys data and to aggregate the nation-wide forecast into the Euro-zone forecast, we propose using an approach based on dynamic factors and unobserved components models. The resulting forecasts are accurate up to six steps ahead.

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Paper provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 33.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:33
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  1. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2002. "Quantification of Qualitative Firm-Level Survey Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C117-C135, March.
  2. Simpson, Paul W & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Forecasting UK Industrial Production over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 405-24, September.
  3. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  4. Bruno, Giancarlo & Lupi, Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03004, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  5. Osborn, Denise R. & Heravi, Saeed & Birchenhall, C. R., 1999. "Seasonal unit roots and forecasts of two-digit European industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, February.
  6. Doz, C. & Lenglart, F., 1998. "Analyse factorielle dynamique: test du nombre de facteurs, estimation, et application a l'enquete de conjoncture dans l'industrie," Papers 9831, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
  7. Brunello, Giorgio & Lupi, Claudio & Ordine, Patrizia, 2000. "Regional Disparities and the Italian NAIRU," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 146-77, January.
  8. Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giorgio Bodo, 2000. "Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 541-561.
  9. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  10. Roberta Zizza, 2002. "Forecasting the industrial production index for the euro area through forecasts for the main countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 441, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Chan Huh, 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-41.
  12. Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
  13. G. Cainelli & C. Lupi, 1998. "Aggregazione contemporanea e specificazione econometrica nella stima trimestrale dei conti economici nazionali," Working Papers 319, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  14. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  15. Bergstrom, Reinhold, 1995. "The relationship between manufacturing production and different business survey series in Sweden 1968-;1992," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-393, September.
  16. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Bujosa-Brun, Marcos, 2000. "Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-227.
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