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Vector-Autoregression Approach to Forecast Italian Imports

  • Carmine Pappalardo

    ()

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

  • Gianfranco Piras

    ()

    (University of Pescara, Faculty of Economics)

Imports represent a relevant component of total economic resources. For the Italian case, they mainly consist of raw materials and intermediate goods. In this paper, we evaluate several econometric models performing shorthorizon forecasts of Italian imports of goods. Year-to-year growth rate of the monthly seasonally unadjusted series is the variable to predict. VAR forecasting ability has been compared to that of a linear univariate benchmark (ARIMA) model. Main forecast diagnostics have been presented. Finally, we perform two types of forecast encompassing tests (Diebold-Mariano, 1995; Fair-Shiller, 1990) for which we present main results.

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Paper provided by ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY) in its series ISAE Working Papers with number 42.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:42
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  1. Bruno, Giancarlo & Lupi, Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp03004, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
  2. Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk & Paap, Richard, 1997. "Bayesian analysis of seasonal unit roots and seasonal mean shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 359-380, June.
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  8. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2001. "General--to--Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 164, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Tests for Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 254-59, April.
  10. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  11. Osborn, Denise R. & Heravi, Saeed & Birchenhall, C. R., 1999. "Seasonal unit roots and forecasts of two-digit European industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-47, February.
  12. Lyhagen, Johan & Löf, Mårten, 2000. "On seasonal error correction when the processes include different numbers of unit roots," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0418, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 Mar 2001.
  13. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
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