Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points
In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.
|Date of creation:||14 Apr 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published in Empirical Economics, vol. 29, no. 3. pp. 647-671.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via De Sanctis, 86100 Campobasso|
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- Bodo, G. & Golinelli, R. & Parigi, G., 2000.
"Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area,"
370, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giorgio Bodo, 2000. "Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 541-561.
- Giorgio Bodo & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993.
"Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data,"
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Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
- Giancarlo Bruno, 2001. "Seasonal Adjustment of Italian Industrial Production Index using Tramo-Seats," ISAE Working Papers 18, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
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