Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points
In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.
|Date of creation:||14 Apr 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published in Empirical Economics, vol. 29, no. 3. pp. 647-671.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.unimol.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992.
"Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giorgio Bodo, 2000.
"Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area,"
Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 541-561.
- Bodo, G. & Golinelli, R. & Parigi, G., 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Papers 370, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Giorgio Bodo & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 370, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Giancarlo Bruno, 2001. "Seasonal Adjustment of Italian Industrial Production Index using Tramo-Seats," ISAE Working Papers 18, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp03004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Lupi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.