IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/opaper/0706.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Jareño

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

Opinion-based surveys, or quantitative surveys, are potentially very powerful tools for conjunctural analysis in view of their rapid availability and nature. This paper addresses the usefulness of these surveys for monitoring the Spanish economy. To do this it analyses the two most important opinion-based surveys, namely the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey and the NTC-Research Purchasing Managers’ Indices, and their relationship to the Quarterly National Accounts macroeconomic data and to the Spanish economy's key conjunctural indicators. The results show that opinion-based surveys are generally useful tools for the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy, although they should be used with caution. Their usefulness is apparent in all the areas analysed: as indicators of economic developments, as pointers to changes in the trend of the economy and as tools for predicting the economic situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Jareño, 2007. "Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy," Occasional Papers 0706, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:0706
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/07/Fic/do0706.pdf
    File Function: First spanish version, December 2007
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
    2. Bruno Giancarlo & Lupi Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," ISAE Working Papers 33, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Lemmens, Aurelie & Croux, Christophe & Dekimpe, Marnik G., 2005. "On the predictive content of production surveys: A pan-European study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 363-375.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    6. Raquel Henriques dos Santos, 2003. "The Use of Qualitative Data for Short Term Analysis," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    8. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area," Working Papers 0419, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    9. Alain N. Kabundi, 2004. "Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 04/69, International Monetary Fund.
    10. John A. Cotsomitis & Andy C. C. Kwan, 2006. "Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European COmmission Business and Consumer Surveys," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 597-610, January.
    11. Maurizio Bovi, 2004. "Consumer Surveys and Reality," Macroeconomics 0408012, EconWPA.
    12. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "On the Predictive Content of Production Surveys : a Pan-European Study," Other publications TiSEM adab9f0e-7dfd-4dc4-bd92-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    opinion survey; short-term analysis; Spain;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:0706. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España). General contact details of provider: http://www.bde.es/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.