IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/0408012.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Consumer Surveys and Reality

Author

Listed:
  • Maurizio Bovi

    (Institute for Studies & Economic Analyses ISAE)

Abstract

This paper investigates the usefulness of Italian consumer surveys as estimation and forecasting tool over the period 1982-2003. To this end, standard consumption equations are estimated and then compared, in terms of in-sample and out-of-sample predictive ability, with corresponding models which differ from them only because of the presence of the confidence indicator. Unlike mainstream literature, the present work focuses on the relationships between subjective and objective information at a less aggregate level. In particular, the overall sentiment index is divided into four sub-indices related to the opinion about the i) current, ii) future, iii) general, and iv) personal situation. In turn, the total private consumption is divided in five items. The idea behind is to check if one attitudinal measure is more or less informative than another, and if some outlay is more or less “sentiment sensitive” than another. It is shown that the qualitative information obtained from household surveys improves both the goodness- of-fit of consumption equations and their forecasting performances. It is noteworthy that these improvements are all the more evident when working on disaggregated data, i.e., linking a particular kind of consumption to a particular sub index. For instance, perceptions about the future help to explain consumption for services more than disbursement for non durable goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurizio Bovi, 2004. "Consumer Surveys and Reality," Macroeconomics 0408012, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0408012
    Note: Type of Document - pdf
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0408/0408012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "Consumers Sentiment and Cognitive Macroeconometrics Paradoxes and Explanations," Macroeconomics 0512002, EconWPA.
    2. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Javier Jareño, 2007. "Opinion-based surveys in the conjunctural analysis of the Spanish economy," Occasional Papers 0706, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer sentiment; Surveys; Consumption; Time series;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0408012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.