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A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area

  • Pilar Bengoechea

    ()

    (European Commission)

  • Gabriel Pérez-Quirós

    ()

    (Banco de España)

This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provides timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/04/Fic/dt0419e.pdf
File Function: First version, November 2004
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0419.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0419
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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