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Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data

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  • Oscar Claveria

    (Regional Quantitative Analysis Research Group, Institute of Applied Economics Research, University of Barcelona, 08034 Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract

In a context of growing uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the opinion of businesses and consumers about the expected development of the main variables that affect their activity becomes essential for economic forecasting. In this paper, we review the research carried out in this field, placing special emphasis on the recent lines of work focused on the exploitation of the predictive content of economic tendency surveys. The study concludes with an evaluation of the forecasting performance of quarterly unemployment expectations for the euro area, which are obtained by means of machine learning methods. The analysis reveals the potential of new analytical techniques for the analysis of business and consumer surveys for economic forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:3:y:2021:i:1:p:8-134:d:500803
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    Cited by:

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    2. Sergey V. Arzhenovskiy, 2024. "Forecasting GDP Dynamics Based on the Bank of Russia’s Enterprise Monitoring Data," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 31-44, February.

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