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Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data

Author

Listed:
  • Dr Martin Weale

  • Dr. James Mitchell

Abstract

This paper generalizes the probability method of quantification [Carlson and Parkin, Economica, 1975] to the variance facilitating the quantification of business survey data which ask individuals whether or not they are uncertain. In an application to UK manufacturing traditional time-series and cross-sectional measures of uncertainty are then evaluated and the effect of uncertainty on investment considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 266, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:266
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    2. Kevin Lee & Michael Mahony & Paul Mizen, 2020. "The CBI Suite of Business Surveys," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," IREA Working Papers 201806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    4. Byrne, Joseph P & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Serafeim, Tsoukas, 2014. "Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-62, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Byrne, Joseph P & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Serafeim, Tsoukas, 2015. "Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-68, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Joseph P. Byrne & Marina-Eliza Spaliara & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2016. "Firm Survival, Uncertainty, And Financial Frictions: Is There A Financial Uncertainty Accelerator?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 375-390, January.
    7. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "“Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty”," AQR Working Papers 2012003, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2020.
    8. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
    9. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
    10. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 95-114, May.
    11. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
    12. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    13. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.

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