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Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia

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  • Juhro, Solikin M.
  • Iyke, Bernard Njindan

Abstract

We estimate several competing regressions and find that confidence predicts consumption expenditure in Indonesia. Our estimations employ data on two measures of confidence, namely consumer and business confidence indexes, consumption and three standard predictors of consumption, namely labour income, stock price, and interest rate. We show that there are economic and statistical gains from consumption growth frameworks that account for consumer and business sentiments. Specifically, we show that policymakers can improve their forecast accuracy by between 4% and 13% by incorporating consumer and business sentiments into their forecasting frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:367-377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2020. "Spectral analysis of business and consumer survey data," IREA Working Papers 202006, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2020.
    2. Berry A. Harahap & Pakasa Bary & Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma, 2020. "The Determinants of Indonesia’s Business Cycle," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 215-235.
    3. Qiu, Yue, 2020. "Forecasting the Consumer Confidence Index with tree-based MIDAS regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 247-256.
    4. Solikin M. Juhro & Paresh K. Narayan & Bernard N. Iyke, 2019. "Understanding Monetary And Fiscal Policy Rule Interactions In Indonesia," Working Papers WP/01/2019, Bank Indonesia.
    5. Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2020. "Economic forecasting with evolved confidence indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 576-585.
    6. Harun, Cicilia A. & Taruna, Aditya Anta & Ramdani,, 2021. "Capturing the nonlinear impact in distress state: Enhancing scenario design of stress test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 265-288.
    7. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
    8. Solikin M. Juhro & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2019. "Forecasting Indonesian Inflation Within An Inflation-Targeting Framework: Do Large-Scale Models Pay Off?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 423-436.
    9. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2021. "“Nowcasting and forecasting GDP growth with machine-learning sentiment indicators”," AQR Working Papers 202101, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Feb 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer confidence; Consumption; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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