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The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis

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  • Andy C.C. Kwan
  • John A. Cotsomitis

Abstract

We examine the ability of the Conference Board of Canada's Index of Consumer Attitudes (ICA) to forecast Canadian household spending both nationally and regionally. Our results indicate that at the national level, the ICA is able to predict total personal consumption expenditures and various subcategories of consumer spending, even when controlling for other macroeconomic variables. We find, however, that the forecasting ability of the regional indices is somewhat weaker when compared to that of the national ICA. Overall, our results reconfirm that consumer confidence is a reliable predictor of household spending in Canada. (JEL C53, E21) Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Andy C.C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2006. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(1), pages 185-197, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:44:y:2006:i:1:p:185-197
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ei/cbi064
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    1. repec:spr:soinre:v:133:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1376-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2017. "Does Business Confidence Matter for Investment?," Carleton Economic Papers 17-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    3. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
    4. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
    5. Bengt Assarsson & Pär Österholm, 2015. "Do Swedish Consumer Confidence Indicators Do What They Are Intended to Do?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 61(4), pages 391-404.
    6. Bahram Adrangi & Joseph Macri, 2011. "Consumer Confidence and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures in the United States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-18, February.
    7. Lilia Karnizova & Hashmat Khan, 2015. "The stock market and the consumer confidence channel: evidence from Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 551-573, September.
    8. Olorunsola Emmanuel Olowofeso & Sani Ibrahim Doguwa, 2015. "Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption for Nigeria," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39 Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Yoko Mimura, 2014. "The Relationship Between Life Satisfaction Among Wives and Financial Preparedness of Households in Japan," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 532-541, December.
    10. Yasemin Özerkek & Sadullah Çelik, 2010. "The Link between Government Spending, Consumer Confidence and Consumption Expenditures in Emerging Market Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(4), pages 471-485, December.
    11. Euler Pereira G. de Mello & Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo, 2014. "Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices," Working Papers Series 371, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Raoufina, Karine, 2016. "Forecasting Employment Growth in Sweden Using a Bayesian VAR Model," Working Papers 144, National Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Hüseyin Kaya & Sadullah Çelik, 2009. "Empirical Evidence For Day Of The Week Effect In An Emerging Market: The Turkish Case," 2009 Meeting Papers 219, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Tugrul Gurgur & Zubeyir Kilinc, 2015. "What Drives the Consumer Confidence in Turkey?," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1517, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    15. Tufan Ekici, 2016. "Subjective Financial Distress in the Formation of Consumer Confidence: Evidence from Novel Household Data," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 11-36.
    16. Lilia Karnizova & Hashmat Khan, 2010. "The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 10-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Aug 2011.
    17. Kopoin, Alexandre & Moran, Kevin & Paré, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "Forecasting regional GDP with factor models: How useful are national and international data?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 267-270.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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