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Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany

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  • Dopke, Jorg
  • Pierdzioch, Christian

Abstract

We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence available for the U.S., we do not find that German stock market returns tend to be higher during liberal than during conservative governments. Also in contrast to results for the U.S., we find no evidence for an election cycle in German stock market returns. However, estimated popularity functions and VARs suggest that stock market returns have had an impact on the popularity of German governments. We find that this result is robust across different VAR specifications and time periods.
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  • Dopke, Jorg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 925-943, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:22:y:2006:i:4:p:925-943
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    Cited by:

    1. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    2. David Le Bris, 2012. "Stock Returns, Governments and Market Foresight in France, 1871-2008," Working Papers CEB 12-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Ray Sturm, 2013. "Economic policy and the presidential election cycle in stock returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(2), pages 200-215, April.
    4. Tielmann, Artur & Schiereck, Dirk, 2017. "Arising borders and the value of logistic companies: Evidence from the Brexit referendum in Great Britain," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 22-28.
    5. Civilize, Sireethorn & Wongchoti, Udomsak & Young, Martin, 2015. "Military regimes and stock market performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 76-95.
    6. repec:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:87-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    8. K. Arin & Alexander Molchanov & Otto Reich, 2013. "Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 23-38, August.
    9. Gabriel Rodríguez & Alfredo Vargas, 2012. "Impacto de expectativas políticas en los retornos del Índice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 35(70), pages 190-223.
    10. Ángel Pardo Tornero & María Dolores Furió Ortega, 2010. "Politics and elections at the Spanish stock exchange," Working Papers. Serie EC 2010-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    11. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Refk Selmi & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Does Partisan Conflict Predict a Reduction in US Stock Market (Realized) Volatility? Evidence from a Quantile-on-Quantile Regression Model," Working Papers 201744, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, 2015. "Voting and the economic cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 119-133, January.
    13. Bülent Köksal & Ahmet Çalışkan, 2012. "Political Business Cycles and Partisan Politics: Evidence from a Developing Economy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 182-199, July.
    14. Salaber, Julie, 2013. "Religion and returns in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 149-160.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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