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LATCOIN: determining medium to long-run tendencies of economic growth in Latvia in real time

Author

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  • Konstantīns Beņkovskis

    (Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

This paper presents a method of estimating the current state of Latvia’s economy. The evaluation object is medium to long-run growth of real GDP, but not actual GDP itself, which helps to filter out various one-off effects and focus on medium and long-run tendencies. Our indicator, called LATCOIN (Latvia’s Business Cycle Coincidence Indicator), could be viewed as a simple adaptation of new EUROCOIN for Latvia with some changes in methodology. LATCOIN is a monthly estimate of the medium to long-run growth of Latvia’s real GDP, which is produced on the 9th working day of the next month. Using a large panel of macroeconomic variables, a few smooth unobservable factors describing the economy are constructed. Further, these factors are used for the estimation of LATCOIN.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantīns Beņkovskis, 2010. "LATCOIN: determining medium to long-run tendencies of economic growth in Latvia in real time," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 27-48, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:27-48
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    File URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/1406099X.2010.10840477
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ginters Buss, 2012. "Forecasting and Signal Extraction with Regularised Multivariate Direct Filter Approach," Working Papers 2012/06, Latvijas Banka.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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