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Risk premium shocks, monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland

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  • Balázs Vonnák

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of monetary policy in a small open economy, where exchange rate shocks are important. VAR models are estimated for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Contemporaneous and sign restrictions are imposed in order to identify the effect of monetary policy and risk premium shocks. Estimates from the same model for Canada, Sweden and the UK are used as benchmark for developed economies with low inflation. The results suggest that the typical size a of risk premium shock renders it almost impossible for the interest rate policy to smooth the exchange rate with the aim of minimising inflationary consequences. On the other hand, low inflation may decrease the exchange rate pass-through, which helps the monetary policy ignore exchange rate shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Vonnák, 2010. "Risk premium shocks, monetary policy and exchange rate pass-through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," MNB Working Papers 2010/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2010/1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    2. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    4. András Rezessy, 2005. "Estimating the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other asset prices in Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/38, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tayfur Bayat & Saban Nazlioglu & Selim Kayhan, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Oil Price Interactions in Transition Economies: Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 267-285, June.
    2. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2010. "A monetáris restrikció hatása strukturális VAR keretben
      [The effect of monetary restriction in a vector auto-regression framework]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 412-430.
    3. Bálint Tamási & Balázs Világi, 2011. "Identification of credit supply shocks in a Bayesian SVAR model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2011/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    4. Judita Jurasekova Kucserova, 2009. "Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers DP 1/2009, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    5. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
    6. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Michal Franta & Dana Hajkova & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Anca Podpiera & Branislav Saxa, 2013. "What We Know About Monetary Policy Transmission in the Czech Republic: Collection of Empirical Results," Research and Policy Notes 2013/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    7. Mihály Hajnal & György Molnár & Judit Várhegyi, 2015. "Exchange rate pass - through after the crisis: the Hungarian experience," MNB Occasional Papers 2015/121, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Gábor Pellényi, 2012. "The Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy in Hungary: A Structural Factor Analysis," MNB Working Papers 2012/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. K. Istrefi & B. Vonnak, 2015. "Delayed Overshooting Puzzle in Structural Vector Autoregression Models," Working papers 576, Banque de France.
    10. Aron Gereben & Ferenc Karvalits & Zalan Kocsis, 2011. "Monetary policy challenges during the crisis in a small open dollarised economy: the case of Hungary," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 179-188 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    12. Adina Popescu & Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary; Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 11/259, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Zsuzsanna Hosszú & Gyöngyi Körmendi & Bálint Tamási & Balázs Világi, 2013. "Impact of the credit supply on the Hungarian economy," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(Special), pages 81-90, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; risk premium shocks; exchange rate pass-through; structural VAR; sign restriction;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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