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Estimating the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other asset prices in Hungary

Author

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  • András Rezessy

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

The paper estimates the immediate impact of Hungarian monetary policy on three classes of asset prices: the exchange rate of the forint vis-à-vis the euro, spot and forward government bond yields and the index of the Budapest Stock Exchange. The endogeneity problem is treated with the method of identification through heteroskedasticity as described by Rigobon and Sack (2004). The results suggest a significant impact on the exchange rate in one day i.e. an increase in the policy rate leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency, which is in line with the classic intuition. The effect increases markedly when the estimation is carried out with a two-day window suggesting the inefficiency of markets in incorporating monetary policy decisions in asset prices in a short period of time. Monetary policy affects spot yields positively, but the effect gradually dies out as the horizon gets longer. This can be explained with the impact on forward yields, as the results suggest a positive impact on short-term and a negative impact on long-term forward yields meaning that a surprise change in the policy rate leads to a rotation of the forward curve. The method does not provide interpretable and significant results for the stock exchange index.

Suggested Citation

  • András Rezessy, 2005. "Estimating the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate and other asset prices in Hungary," MNB Occasional Papers 2005/38, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:opaper:2005/38
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/op-38.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramon Moreno, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission and the long-term interest rate in emerging markets," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 61-79 Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Duran, Murat & Özcan, Gülserim & Özlü, Pınar & Ünalmış, Deren, 2012. "Measuring the impact of monetary policy on asset prices in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 29-31.
    3. repec:onb:oenbwp:y:2006:i:1:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Fabrizio Coricelli & Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 44-87.
    5. Vonnák Balázs, 2010. "Risk Premium Shocks, Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 28(61), pages 306-351, August.
    6. Balazs Vonnak, 2008. "The Hungarian monetary transmission mechanism: an assessment," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 235-257 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Adina Popescu & Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary; Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 11/259, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Küçükkocaoğlu, Güray & Ünalmış, Deren & Ünalmış, İbrahim, 2013. "How do banks' stock returns respond to monetary policy committee announcements in Turkey? Evidence from traditional versus new monetary policy episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 536-545.
    9. Balázs Égert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Transition Economies: Surveying the Surveyable," MNB Working Papers 2006/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe : gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 633-650, May.
    12. Murat Duran & Gulserim Ozcan & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices in Turkey (Turkiye’de Para Politikasinin Finansal Varlik Fiyatlari Uzerine Etkisi)," Working Papers 1017, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Fabrizio Coricelli & Bal??zs ??gert & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Central & Eastern Europe: Gliding on a Wind of Change," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp850, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    14. Prabu A, Edwin & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Ray, Partha, 2016. "Is the stock market impervious to monetary policy announcements: Evidence from emerging India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 166-179.
    15. Balatoni, András & Tóth G., Csaba, 2012. "Az új magyar adósságszabály értékelése
      [Assessment of the new regulations on debt]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 1107-1137.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary transmission mechanism; Asset prices; Exchange rate; Yield curve; Stock market; Identification; Heteroskedasticity.;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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