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Optimal food price stabilisation policy

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  • Christophe Gouel

    () (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech)

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework for designing optimal food price stabilisation policies in a self-sufficient developing country. It uses a rational expectations storage model with risk-averse consumers and incomplete markets. Government stabilises food prices by carrying public stock and by applying a state-contingent subsidy/tax to production. The policy rules are designed to maximise intertemporal welfare. The optimal policy under commitment crowds out all private stockholding activity by removing the profit opportunity from speculation. The countercyclical subsidy/tax to production helps price stabilisation by subsidising production in periods of scarcity and by taxing it in periods of glut. It contributes little to welfare gains, most of which come from stabilisation achieved through public storage.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Optimal food price stabilisation policy," Post-Print hal-01019459, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01019459
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.10.003
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01019459
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    Cited by:

    1. Brockhaus, Jan & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2015. "Grain emergency reserve cooperation – A theoretical analysis of benefits from a common emergency reserve," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212767, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Elleby, Christian, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182722, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Zhou, Wei, 2015. "Three essays on modeling biofuel feedstock supply," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005728, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Matthias Kalkuhl & Irfan Mujahid, 2015. "Food price volatility in developing countries – the role of trade and storage," EcoMod2015 8415, EcoMod.
    5. Wenshou Yan, 2016. "Political Economy of Trade and Storage Policies Coordination, and the Role of Domestic Public Storage in the World Market," School of Economics Working Papers 2016-16, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    6. Romero-Aguilar, Randall S. & Miranda, Mario J., 2014. "Food Security for Whom? The Effectiveness of Food Reserves in Poor Developing Countries," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170184, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    8. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Lamonaca, Emilia & Contò, Francesco & Stasi, Antonio & Nardone, Gianluca, 2017. "Drivers of grain price volatility: a cursory critical review," MPRA Paper 79427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Christophe Gouel & Sébastien Jean, 2015. "Optimal Food Price Stabilization in a Small Open Developing Country," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(1), pages 72-101.
    10. Andor, Mark & Voss, Achim, 2016. "Optimal renewable-energy promotion: Capacity subsidies vs. generation subsidies," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 144-158.
    11. repec:eee:ecosta:v:4:y:2017:i:c:p:39-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Brockhaus, Jan & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Kozicka, Marta, 2016. "What Drives India’s Rice Stocks? Empirical Evidence," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235659, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Oglend, Atle & Kleppe, Tore Selland, 2017. "On the behavior of commodity prices when speculative storage is bounded," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 52-69.
    14. Zhou, Wei & Babcock, Bruce A., 2014. "Endogenous Price in a Dynamic Model for Agricultural Supply Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170584, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0473 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Christophe Gouel & Madhur Gautam & Will J. Martin, 2016. "Managing food price volatility in a large open country: the case of wheat in India," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 811-835.
    17. Porteous, Obie C., 2015. "High Trade Costs and Their Consequences: An Estimated Model of African Agricultural Storage and Trade," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205776, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    18. Carine Meyimdjui, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers halshs-01457366, HAL.
    19. Carine MEYIMDJUI, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers 201703, CERDI.
    20. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    21. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Rules versus Discretion in Food Storage Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1029-1044.
    22. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian, 2016. "On the Economics of Commodity Price Dynamics and Price Volatility," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235070, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Storage; Risk-aversion; Food price stabilisation; Incomplete markets;

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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