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Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants

  • Kornher, Lukas
  • Kalkuhl, Matthias

The work at hand contributes to the ongoing discussion on the drivers of food price volatility. Based on theoretical considerations, economical, agricultural, and political determinants of domestic price volatility are identified and discussed. A dynamic panel is estimated to account for country fixed effects and persistence of volatility. Two approaches are followed in order to consistently estimate the impact of time-invariant variables. First, system GMM using levels instead of first differences and, second, a two step IV estimation using the residuals from the system GMM estimation. Findings suggest that stocks, production, international price volatility, and governance significantly affect domestic price variability. Furthermore, improved functionality of markets and reduced transaction costs can stabilise prices. With respect to agricultural policies, public stockholding seems to be associated with less volatility, whereas trade restrictions do not enhance price stabilisation. Lastly, landlocked countries experience less variability in grain prices, while African countries have more volatile prices than countries on other continents.

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Paper provided by German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA) in its series 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 with number 156132.

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Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi13:156132
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