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Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants

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  • Kornher, Lukas
  • Kalkuhl, Matthias

Abstract

The work at hand contributes to the ongoing discussion on the drivers of food price volatility. Based on theoretical considerations, economical, agricultural, and political determinants of domestic price volatility are identified and discussed. A dynamic panel is estimated to account for country fixed effects and persistence of volatility. Two approaches are followed in order to consistently estimate the impact of time-invariant variables. First, system GMM using levels instead of first differences and, second, a two step IV estimation using the residuals from the system GMM estimation. Findings suggest that stocks, production, international price volatility, and governance significantly affect domestic price variability. Furthermore, improved functionality of markets and reduced transaction costs can stabilise prices. With respect to agricultural policies, public stockholding seems to be associated with less volatility, whereas trade restrictions do not enhance price stabilisation. Lastly, landlocked countries experience less variability in grain prices, while African countries have more volatile prices than countries on other continents.

Suggested Citation

  • Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food price volatility in developing countries and its determinants," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156132, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi13:156132
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.156132
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    Cited by:

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    5. Emmanuel Abokyi & Dirk Strijker & Kofi Fred Asiedu & Michiel N. Daams, 2022. "Buffer Stock Operations and Well-Being: The Case of Smallholder Farmers in Ghana," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 125-148, January.
    6. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices? A Global Price Transmission Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Donato, Romano & Carraro, Alessandro, 2015. "Modelling Acreage, Production and Yield Supply Response to Domestic Price Volatility," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207278, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    8. Arief Daryanto & Diani Aliya Sofia & Sahara Sahara & Antonya Rumondang Sinaga, 2020. "Climate Change and Milk Price Volatility in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 282-288.
    9. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    10. Sergio René Araujo‐Enciso & Thomas Fellmann, 2020. "Yield Variability and Harvest Failures in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan and Their Possible Impact on Food Security in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 493-516, June.
    11. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Matthias Kalkuhl & Irfan Mujahid, 2015. "Food price volatility in developing countries – the role of trade and storage," EcoMod2015 8415, EcoMod.
    12. Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim & Torero, Maximo, 2016. "Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy," MPRA Paper 72164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    15. Shittu, Adebayo M. & Akerele, Dare & Haile, Mekbib, 2017. "Food Price Spikes and Volatility in Local Food Markets in Nigeria," Discussion Papers 263293, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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