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International Transmission of Food Prices and Volatilities: A Panel Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Lee , Hyun-Hoon

    (Kangwon National University)

  • Park, Cyn-Young

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

High and volatile food prices pose a significant policy challenge around the world, and an understanding of the dynamics of food price inflation and volatility is essential in designing appropriate policy responses. Using the panel data for 72 countries from 2000 to 2011, the paper assesses the international transmission of food price inflation and volatilities as well as the effects of various internal and external factors on domestic food price inflation and volatility. The paper offers evidence in support of the international transmission of food price inflation and volatility. Specifically, the paper finds that the domestic food price inflation in Asia is strongly associated with the lagged value of global food price inflation (using the FAO food price index), while volatility spillovers from global to domestic food prices are rather contemporaneous. The paper also finds that both national food price inflation rates and volatilities are strongly associated with both intra- and extra- regional food price inflation rates and volatilities, respectively. The findings also suggest that higher economic growth rates, greater shares of food in merchandise imports, and smaller increases in the share of food in merchandise imports lead to lower domestic food price inflation. An appreciation of local currency, greater political stability, and higher income level are also found to lower domestic food price inflation. On the other hand, higher economic growth rates lead to lower volatilities of food prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee , Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young, 2013. "International Transmission of Food Prices and Volatilities: A Panel Analysis," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 373, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0373
    Note: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2013/ewp-373.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minot, Nicholas, 2011. "Transmission of world food price changes to markets in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1059, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Onour, Ibrahim & Sergi, Bruno, 2011. "Global food and energy markets: volatility transmission and impulse response effects," MPRA Paper 34079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Ganesh Thapa, 2008. "Transmission of World Commodity Prices to Domestic Commodity Prices in India and China," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 4508, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. AfDB AfDB, 2018. "Working Paper 306 - Asymmetric Price Transmission of Rice in Togo," Working Paper Series 2427, African Development Bank.
    2. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-32, November.
    3. Christian Elleby, 2014. "Poverty and Price Transmission," IFRO Working Paper 2015/01, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food price inflation; food price volatility; food price transmission; food security; food policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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