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Transmission des chocs de prix internationaux : le cas du riz au Burkina Faso

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  • Félix Badolo

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

La hausse des prix des produits agricoles sur les marchés internationaux durant la période 2006-2008 a entraîné une flambée des prix intérieurs dans certains pays en développement, mais pas dans d'autres. La littérature empirique sur la transmission des chocs des prix internationaux dans les pays en développement reste très mitigée. L'objectif de ce papier est d'évaluer la relation entre le prix du riz importé sur les marchés au Burkina Faso et le prix international, à partir de tests de cointégration linéaire et non linéaire. L'analyse se base sur des séries mensuelles de prix pour deux marchés du Burkina Faso : le marché de Sankaryaré à Ouagadougou et le marché de Dori au nord du pays. Les résultats montrent que les prix du riz importé sur ces deux marchés sont intégrés au prix international. L'élasticité de transmission de long terme apparaît importante. Le modèle TAR révèle une transmission asymétrique dont l'ampleur diffère en fonction de la nature des chocs. Les hausses du prix international se transmettent plus rapidement aux prix intérieurs que les baisses. Ces résultats s'expliquent par le pouvoir de marché des intermédiaires commerciaux, les coûts de transport et les mécanismes d'intervention du gouvernement.

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  • Félix Badolo, 2011. "Transmission des chocs de prix internationaux : le cas du riz au Burkina Faso," Working Papers halshs-00627189, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00627189
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00627189
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    2. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.

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    Keywords

    marchés des produits de base; transmission asymétrique; modèles autorégressifs à seuil;
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