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Middle East and North Africa Countries' Vulnerability to Commodity Price Increases

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Abstract

New estimates of pass-through coefficients for the Middle East and North Africa indicate that a rise of global food prices is transmitted to a significant degree into domestic food prices. Over the past decade, transmission from international to domestic prices has been particularly high for Egypt, Iraq, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates and West Bank and Gaza, while being particularly low in Tunisia and Algeria. Where international food price increases translate into domestic prices, overall inflation tends to be higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Loening, Josef L., 2011. "Middle East and North Africa Countries' Vulnerability to Commodity Price Increases," MPRA Paper 33393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33393
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Albers, Ronald & Peeters, Marga, 2011. "Food and energy prices, government subsidies and fiscal balances in south Mediterranean countries," MPRA Paper 28788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    3. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    4. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 155-208, January.
    5. Sam Peltzman, 2000. "Prices Rise Faster than They Fall," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 466-502, June.
    6. Jochen Meyer & Stephan Cramon-Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611.
    7. Julian Lampietti & Sean Michaels & Nick Magnan, 2009. "Improving Food Security in Arab Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10992, The World Bank.
    8. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Oil price pass-through into inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 126-133, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kelbore, Zerihun Getachew, 2013. "Transmission of World Food Prices to Domestic Market: The Ethiopian Case," MPRA Paper 49712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices? A Global Price Transmission Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 0. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 52.
    4. repec:eee:wdevel:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:216-230 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis," Discussion Papers 168591, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    6. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 448, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Bekkers, Eddy & Brockmeier, Martina & Francois, Joseph & Yang, Fan, 2017. "Local Food Prices and International Price Transmission," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 216-230.
    9. Basher, Syed Abul & Raboy, David G. & Kaitibie, Simeon & Hossain, Ishrat, 2012. "The economics of food security in Arab micro states: preliminary evidence from micro data," MPRA Paper 39357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 3. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price transmission; inflation; food prices; Middle East and North Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

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