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Middle East and North Africa Countries' Vulnerability to Commodity Price Increases

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Abstract

New estimates of pass-through coefficients for the Middle East and North Africa indicate that a rise of global food prices is transmitted to a significant degree into domestic food prices. Over the past decade, transmission from international to domestic prices has been particularly high for Egypt, Iraq, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates and West Bank and Gaza, while being particularly low in Tunisia and Algeria. Where international food price increases translate into domestic prices, overall inflation tends to be higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Loening, Josef L., 2011. "Middle East and North Africa Countries' Vulnerability to Commodity Price Increases," MPRA Paper 33393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33393
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Erten Bilge & Tuzcuoglu Kerem, 2018. "Output Effects of Global Food Commodity Shocks," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices? A Global Price Transmission Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Gunwant, Darshita Fulara & Rather, Sartaj Rasool, 2021. "Transmission of world price shocks - Evidence from GCC countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    4. Umar Bala & Lee Chin, 2018. "Asymmetric Impacts of Oil Price on Inflation: An Empirical Study of African OPEC Member Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Bekkers, Eddy & Brockmeier, Martina & Francois, Joseph & Yang, Fan, 2017. "Local Food Prices and International Price Transmission," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 216-230.
    6. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    7. Kareem, Olayinka Idowu, 2014. "Standards and Food Exports in a South - North Trade: Evidence from the ‘Hurdles to Pass’ for High-Value Products," Conference papers 332530, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Guenette,Justin Damien, 2020. "Price Controls : Good Intentions, Bad Outcomes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9212, The World Bank.
    9. Raquel Tebaldi, 2019. "Building Shock-Responsive National Social Protection Systems in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region," Research Report 30, International Policy Centre.
    10. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    11. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices – Evidence for the MENA Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0448, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Maystadt, Jean-François & Trinh Tan, Jean-François & Breisinger, Clemens, 2014. "Does food security matter for transition in Arab countries?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 106-115.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2013. "The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence for the MENA Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1332, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    14. repec:fpr:2020cp:5(5 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kelbore, Zerihun Getachew, 2013. "Transmission of World Food Prices to Domestic Market: The Ethiopian Case," MPRA Paper 49712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The transmission of oil and food prices to consumer prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 143-161, March.
    17. Alessandro De Matteis, 2014. "Varied nutritional impact of the global food price crisis," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 166-176.
    18. Ebenezer G Olamide & Andrew Maredza, 2021. "The Short and Long Run Dynamics of Monetary Policy, Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in the CEMAC Region," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(1), pages 78-89, January.
    19. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis," Discussion Papers 168591, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    20. Girijesh Pant, 2012. "From the Vantage Point of Tahrir Square," International Studies, , vol. 49(3-4), pages 331-350, July.
    21. Basher, Syed Abul & Raboy, David G. & Kaitibie, Simeon & Hossain, Ishrat, 2012. "The economics of food security in Arab micro states: preliminary evidence from micro data," MPRA Paper 39357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 2015. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3), pages 1-13, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

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