IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fsc/fspubl/15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Kalkuhl
  • Lukas Kornher
  • Marta Kozicka
  • Pierre Boulanger
  • Maximo Torero

Abstract

This paper establishes a conceptual framework that links short-term price changes with food and nutrition security. We first provide an overview on the causes of commodity price volatility and approaches to measure volatility. Next, different concepts to measure food security impacts are elaborated and discussed. In contrast to consumption, utility or perception based indicators, anthropometric indicators provide the most direct measure of nutritional impacts. An extensive literature review emphasizes that anthropometric indicators can respond significantly within few months to shocks like droughts, seasonality or economic crises. As there is few research on the impact of price shocks to nutritional status, the developed conceptual framework elaborates different channels how price changes and price risks affect households and food security. The paper concludes with implications for further research to analyze the impact of price volatility on food security empirically.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    • Handle: RePEc:fsc:fspubl:15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www3.lei.wur.nl/FoodSecurePublications/15_Kalkuhl_conceptualFrameworkPriceVolatilityFNS.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pangaribowo, Evita Hanie & Gerber, Nicolas & Torero, Maximo, 2013. "Food and Nutrition Security Indicators: A Review," Working Papers 147911, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    2. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    3. Grant Miller & B. Piedad Urdinola, 2010. "Cyclicality, Mortality, and the Value of Time: The Case of Coffee Price Fluctuations and Child Survival in Colombia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(1), pages 113-155, February.
    4. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425.
    5. Block, Steven A. & Kiess, Lynnda & Webb, Patrick & Kosen, Soewarta & Moench-Pfanner, Regina & Bloem, Martin W. & Peter Timmer, C., 2004. "Macro shocks and micro outcomes: child nutrition during Indonesia's crisis," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 21-44, March.
    6. Jorge M. Aguero & Michael R. Carter & Ingrid Woolard, 2006. "The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Nutrition: The South African Child Support Grant," SALDRU Working Papers 8, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    7. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Christopher Gilbert & Wyn Morgan, 2010. "Has food price volatility risen?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1002, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    9. Barrett, Christopher B., 2008. "Smallholder market participation: Concepts and evidence from eastern and southern Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 299-317, August.
    10. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    11. Benson, Todd & Minot, Nicholas & Pender, John & Robles, Miguel & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Information to guide policy responses to higher global food prices: The data and analyses required," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 47-58.
    12. Albert Park, 2006. "Risk and Household Grain Management in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 1088-1115, October.
    13. Yuqing Zheng & Henry Kinnucan & Henry Thompson, 2008. "News and volatility of food prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(13), pages 1629-1635.
    14. von Grebmer, Klaus & Torero, Maximo & Olofinbiyi, Tolulope & Fritschel, Heidi & Wiesmann, Doris & Yohannes, Yisehac & Schofield, Lilly & von Oppeln, Constanze, 2011. "2011 Global Hunger Index: The Challenge of Hunger: Taming price spikes and excessive food price volatility," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 2011 GHI English.
    15. Elena I. Ianchovichina & Josef L. Loening & Christina A. Wood, 2014. "How Vulnerable are Arab Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(9), pages 1302-1319, September.
    16. Azar, Christian & Sterner, Thomas, 1996. "Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 169-184, November.
    17. Getaw Tadesse & Atle G. Guttormsen, 2011. "The behavior of commodity prices in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 87-97, January.
    18. Greb, Friederike & Jamora, Nelissa & Mengel, Carolin & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Wurriehausen, Nadine, 2012. "Price transmission from international to domestic markets," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 137101, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    19. Wright, Brian D & Williams, Jeffrey C, 1982. "The Economic Role of Commodity Storage," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(367), pages 596-614, September.
    20. Arndt, Channing & Østerdal, Lars Peter & Hussain, M. Azhar, 2012. "Effects of Food Price Shocks on Child Malnutrition," WIDER Working Paper Series 089, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Renate Hartwig & Michael Grimm, 2012. "An Assessment of the Effects of the 2002 Food Crisis on Children's Health in Malawi-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 21(1), pages 124-165, January.
    22. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
    23. Robert Jensen, 2000. "Agricultural Volatility and Investments in Children," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 399-404, May.
    24. Masset, Edoardo, 2011. "A review of hunger indices and methods to monitor country commitment to fighting hunger," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 102-108.
    25. Gørgens, Tue & Meng, Xin & Vaithianathan, Rhema, 2012. "Stunting and selection effects of famine: A case study of the Great Chinese Famine," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 99-111.
    26. Israel Finkelshtain & James A. Chalfant, 1997. "Commodity Price Stabilization in a Peasant Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1208-1217.
    27. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    28. Maxwell, Daniel G., 1996. "Measuring food insecurity: the frequency and severity of "coping strategies"," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 291-303, July.
    29. Fogel, Robert W, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 369-395, June.
    30. Smith, Lisa C. & Haddad, Lawrence James, 2000. "Explaining child malnutrition in developing countries: a cross-country analysis," Research reports 111, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    31. Makki, Shiva S. & Tweeten, Luther G. & Miranda, Mario J., 2001. "Storage-trade interactions under uncertainty: Implications for food security," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 127-140, February.
    32. Almánzar, Miguel & Torero, Máximo & Grebmer, Klaus von, 2013. "Futures Commodities Prices and Media Coverage," Discussion Papers 149414, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    33. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon, 2011. "Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: An Overview," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 52, OECD Publishing.
    34. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    35. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    36. John Hoddinott, 2006. "Shocks and their consequences across and within households in Rural Zimbabwe," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 301-321.
    37. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Rethinking the global food crisis: The role of trade shocks," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 136-146, April.
    38. Masset, Edoardo, 2011. "A review of hunger indices and methods to monitor country commitment to fighting hunger," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 102-108, January.
    39. Tiwari, Sailesh & Zaman, Hassan, 2010. "The impact of economic shocks on global undernourishment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5215, The World Bank.
    40. von Braun, Joachim & Tadesse, Getaw, 2012. "Global Food Price Volatility and Spikes: An Overview of Costs, Causes, and Solutions," Discussion Papers 120021, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    41. Bart Capéau & Stefan Dercon, 2006. "Prices, Unit Values and Local Measurement Units in Rural Surveys: an Econometric Approach with an Application to Poverty Measurement in Ethiopia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(2), pages 181-211, June.
    42. Robert T. Jensen & Nolan H. Miller, 2008. "Giffen Behavior and Subsistence Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1553-1577, September.
    43. Headey, Derek, 2011. "Was the global food crisis really a crisis?: Simulations versus self-reporting," IFPRI discussion papers 1087, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    44. Bellemare, Marc F., 2011. "Rising food prices, food price volatility, and political unrest," MPRA Paper 31888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    46. Myers, Robert J., 2006. "On the costs of food price fluctuations in low-income countries," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 288-301, August.
    47. de Brauw, Alan, 2011. "Migration and child development during the food price crisis in El Salvador," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 28-40, February.
    48. David Dawe, 2008. "Have Recent Increases in International Cereal Prices Been Transmitted to Domestic Economies? The experience in seven large Asian countries," Working Papers 08-03, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    49. Hoddinott, John & Kinsey, Bill, 2001. " Child Growth in the Time of Drought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 409-436, September.
    50. Carlos Martins-Filho & Feng Yao & Maximo Torero, 2015. "High-Order Conditional Quantile Estimation Based on Nonparametric Models of Regression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 907-958.
    51. Hernandez, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    52. Robert T. Jensen & Nolan H. Miller, 2008. "The impact of food price increases on caloric intake in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 465-476, November.
    53. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    54. Jayne, Thomas S. & Sitko, Nicholas J. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob & Mangisoni, Julius H., 2010. "Malawi’s Maize Marketing System," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 62162, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    55. Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & McPeak, John G. & Kaitho, Robert & Kristjanson, Patti, 2009. "Empirical forecasting of slow-onset disasters for improved emergency response: An application to Kenya's arid north," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 329-339, August.
    56. Minot, Nicholas, 2010. "Transmission of World Food Price Changes to African Markets and its Effect on Household Welfare," Food Security Collaborative Working Papers 58563, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    57. Loening, Josef L., 2011. "Middle East and North Africa Countries' Vulnerability to Commodity Price Increases," MPRA Paper 33393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Kalkuhl & Irfan Mujahid, 2014. "A Typology of Indicators on Production Potential, Efficiency and FNS Risk," FOODSECURE Technical papers 4, LEI Wageningen UR.
    2. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices? A Global Price Transmission Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169798, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. repec:eee:agisys:v:160:y:2018:i:c:p:98-109 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marta Kozicka & Dr Matthias Kalkuhl & Jan Brockhaus, 2015. "Food Grain Policies in India and Their Implications for Stocks and Fiscal Costs: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis," EcoMod2015 8377, EcoMod.
    5. repec:bla:jageco:v:68:y:2017:i:1:p:98-122 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lukas Kornher & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2015. "A Typology for Price-related Food and Nutrition Risks and Policy Responses," FOODSECURE Technical papers 5, LEI Wageningen UR.
    7. Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2014. "How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis," Discussion Papers 168591, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fsc:fspubl:15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Barbara van der Hout). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ledlonl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.