IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Distinguishing between endogenous and exogenous price volatility in food security assessment: An empirical nonlinear dynamics approach


  • Huffaker, R.
  • Canavari, M.
  • Muñoz-Carpena, R.


We propose an empirical scheme—based on nonlinear dynamics—for diagnosing real-world market dynamics from observed price series data. The scheme distinguishes between endogenous and exogenous volatility in observed price series, tests whether endogenous volatility is generated by low-dimensional deterministic market dynamics, simulates these dynamics with a phenomenological market model, and models extreme volatility probabilistically. These diagnostics allow policymakers to make an empirically-informed determination of whether laissez-faire or interventionist policies are most promising in reducing price volatility in particular cases. We apply the diagnostic scheme to provide compelling empirical evidence that observed volatility in organic apple, pear, orange, and lemon prices at the Milano (Italy) Ipercoop is due to endogenous market dynamics governed by low-dimensional nonlinear behavior. The implication for food policy is that this inherently unstable market cannot be relied upon to systematically stabilize observed price volatility from random exogenous shocks. There may be scope for public interventions targeted to increasing the flexibility of organic fruit producers in responding to changing market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Huffaker, R. & Canavari, M. & Muñoz-Carpena, R., 2018. "Distinguishing between endogenous and exogenous price volatility in food security assessment: An empirical nonlinear dynamics approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 98-109.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:160:y:2018:i:c:p:98-109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.09.019

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hommes, Cars H., 1991. "Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-132, June.
    2. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    3. Gershon Feder, 1979. "Pesticides, Information, and Pest Management under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(1), pages 97-103.
    4. Mevik, Björn-Helge & Wehrens, Ron, 2007. "The pls Package: Principal Component and Partial Least Squares Regression in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 18(i02).
    5. Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
    6. Jean-Paul Chavas & Matthew T. Holt, 1993. "Market Instability and Nonlinear Dynamics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(1), pages 113-120.
    7. B. Adrangi & A. Chatrath, 2003. "Non-linear dynamics in futures prices: evidence from the coffee, sugar and cocoa exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 245-256.
    8. Charles F. Nicholson & Mark W. Stephenson, 2015. "Milk Price Cycles in the U.S. Dairy Supply Chain and Their Management Implications," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 507-520, October.
    9. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka & Pierre Boulanger & Maximo Torero, 2013. "Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term," FOODSECURE Working papers 15, LEI Wageningen UR.
    10. Jensen, Roderick V. & Urban, Robin, 1984. "Chaotic price behavior in a non-linear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 235-240.
    11. Golyandina, Nina & Korobeynikov, Anton, 2014. "Basic Singular Spectrum Analysis and forecasting with R," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 934-954.
    12. Berg, Ernst & Huffaker, Ray, 2015. "Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, July.
    13. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Miranda, Mario J., 2018. "Complex price dynamics in vertically linked cobweb markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 363-378.
    2. Berg, Ernst, 2017. "Impacts of Inventory Management on Price Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Markets: Insights from a System Dynamics Model," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261281, European Association of Agricultural Economists.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:160:y:2018:i:c:p:98-109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.