IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/joevec/v29y2019i2d10.1007_s00191-018-0595-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A cobweb model with elements from prospect theory

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmad Naimzada

    (University of Milano - Bicocca)

  • Nicolò Pecora

    (Catholic University)

  • Fabio Tramontana

    (Catholic University)

Abstract

We present a cobweb model to explain price adjustment in a competitive market with homogeneous firms based on assumptions from Prospect Theory. Price changes are evaluated with respect to a psychological reference price which enters directly into the demand function. Accordingly, firms face a downward-sloping demand curve that is kinked at the consumers’ reference price. Differently from the traditional cobweb model, the economy is described by a discontinuous map. Without assuming specific non-linearities and keeping the essential underlying mechanics of the model intact, we find that the implementation of several features from Prospect Theory into our simple cobweb model may significantly influence the market dynamics. Behavioral parameters play an important role for the market stability by reducing fluctuations and by directly affecting consumers’ demand as well as production decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmad Naimzada & Nicolò Pecora & Fabio Tramontana, 2019. "A cobweb model with elements from prospect theory," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 763-778, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:29:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s00191-018-0595-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-018-0595-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00191-018-0595-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00191-018-0595-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hommes, Cars & Zeppini, Paolo, 2014. "Innovate or Imitate? Behavioural technological change," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 308-324.
    2. Hommes, Cars H., 1991. "Adaptive learning and roads to chaos : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 127-132, June.
    3. Goeree, Jacob K. & Hommes, Cars H., 2000. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the non-linear cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 761-798, June.
    4. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
    5. Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
    6. Ahrens, Steffen & Pirschel, Inske & Snower, Dennis J., 2017. "A theory of price adjustment under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 78-95.
    7. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, September.
    8. Botond Kőszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165.
    9. Briesch, Richard A, et al, 1997. "A Comparative Analysis of Reference Price Models," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 24(2), pages 202-214, September.
    10. Hommes,Cars, 2015. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107564978, September.
    11. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    12. Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
    13. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
    14. Heiko Karle & Martin Peitz, 2014. "Competition under consumer loss aversion," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(1), pages 1-31, March.
    15. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    16. Jensen, Roderick V. & Urban, Robin, 1984. "Chaotic price behavior in a non-linear cobweb model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 235-240.
    17. Eric A. Greenleaf, 1995. "The Impact of Reference Price Effects on the Profitability of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 82-104.
    18. Sibly, Hugh, 2002. "Loss averse customers and price inflexibility," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 521-538, August.
    19. , & ,, 2014. "Regular prices and sales," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), January.
    20. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    21. José A. Scheinkman & Jack Schechtman, 1983. "A Simple Competitive Model with Production and Storage," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(3), pages 427-441.
    22. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    24. Ran Spiegler, 2012. "Monopoly pricing when consumers are antagonized by unexpected price increases: a “cover version” of the Heidhues–Kőszegi–Rabin model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 51(3), pages 695-711, November.
    25. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    26. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & William G. Tomek, 2005. "How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 289-303, November.
    28. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    29. Magda Kandil, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of demand shocks: international evidence on determinants and implications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(17), pages 2127-2145.
    30. Nirvikar Singh & Xavier Vives, 1984. "Price and Quantity Competition in a Differentiated Duopoly," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(4), pages 546-554, Winter.
    31. Akio Matsumoto, 1997. "Ergodic cobweb chaos," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 1, pages 1-12, January.
    32. Claudia Kwapil & Johann Scharler & Josef Baumgartner, 2010. "How are prices adjusted in response to shocks? Survey evidence from Austrian firms," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 151-160.
    33. Ioana Popescu & Yaozhong Wu, 2007. "Dynamic Pricing Strategies with Reference Effects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 413-429, June.
    34. Nicholas Barberis, 2012. "A Model of Casino Gambling," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 35-51, January.
    35. Waters, George A., 2009. "Chaos in the cobweb model with a new learning dynamic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1201-1216, June.
    36. Nicholas C. Barberis, 2013. "Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 173-196, Winter.
    37. Richard H. Thaler, 2016. "Behavioral Economics: Past, Present, and Future," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1577-1600, July.
    38. Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Dhanda, Kanwalroop Kathy, 2002. "Are commodity prices chaotic?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 123-137, August.
    39. Seung-Ryong Yang & B. Wade Brorsen, 1992. "Nonlinear Dynamics of Daily Cash Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(3), pages 706-715.
    40. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Cui & He, Rui-chun & Zhou, Wei & Li, Hui, 2021. "Dynamic analysis of airline bidding game based on nonlinear cost," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    2. Wang, Wen-Kai & Lin, Che-Chun & Tsai, I-Chun, 2022. "Long- and short-term price behaviors in presale housing markets in Taiwan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 350-364.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    2. Tramontana, Fabio, 2021. "When a boundedly rational monopolist meets consumers with reference dependent preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 30-45.
    3. Ahrens, Steffen & Pirschel, Inske & Snower, Dennis J., 2017. "A theory of price adjustment under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 78-95.
    4. Dieci, Roberto & Mignot, Sarah & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Production delays, technology choice and cyclical cobweb dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-065 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Interacting cobweb markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 461-481, September.
    7. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    8. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    9. Naimzada, Ahmad & Pireddu, Marina, 2020. "Rational expectations (may) lead to complex dynamics in a Muthian cobweb model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 415-432.
    10. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hung, Hing & Zhu, Peiyuan, 2006. "An analysis of the cobweb model with boundedly rational heterogeneous producers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 750-768, December.
    11. Cars H. Hommes, 2009. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Hommes, Cars & Li, Kai & Wagener, Florian, 2022. "Production delays and price dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 341-362.
    13. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Miranda, Mario J., 2018. "Complex price dynamics in vertically linked cobweb markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 363-378.
    14. Westerhoff, Frank & Wieland, Cristian, 2010. "A behavioral cobweb-like commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1136-1143, September.
    15. Tamotsu Onozaki, 2018. "Nonlinearity, Bounded Rationality, and Heterogeneity," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-4-431-54971-0, June.
    16. Fabrizi, Simona & Lippert, Steffen & Puppe, Clemens & Rosenkranz, Stephanie, 2016. "Manufacturer suggested retail prices, loss aversion and competition," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 141-153.
    17. Colombo, Luca & Labrecciosa, Paola, 2021. "Dynamic oligopoly pricing with reference-price effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 1006-1016.
    18. Yankou Diasso, 2014. "Dynamique du prix international du coton : aléas, aversion au risque et chaos," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 80(4), pages 53-86.
    19. Cristian Wieland & Frank Westerhoff, 2004. "A behavioral cobweb model with heterogeneous speculators," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 171, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Hommes, Cars & van Eekelen, Arno, 1996. "Partial equilibrium analysis in a noisy chaotic market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 275-282, December.
    21. Choudhary, M. Ali & Michael Orszag, J., 2008. "A cobweb model with local externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 821-847, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cobweb model; Reference price; Transaction utility; Behavioral economics; Discontinuous maps; Complex dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:29:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s00191-018-0595-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.