A behavioral cobweb model with heterogeneous speculators
This paper aims at integrating heterogeneous boundedly rational speculators into the classical cobweb framework in which the producers have naive expectations. The net supply available to consumers thus depends on the positions of the speculators who switch between technical and fundamental forecast rules to predict prices. Our nonlinear, yet quite simple model has the potential to produce price dynamics which mimics the well-known cyclical price fluctuations of commodity markets. We show that if the number of speculators increases we first observe a pitchfork bifurcation and then a period doubling bifurcation. After infinitely many period doubling bifurcations the dynamics becomes chaotic
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990.
"Bulls, bears and market sheep,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
- Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
- C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
- Hommes, C.H., 2000. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial Markets as Nonlinear Adaptive Evolutionary Systems," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-014/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Peter Wickham & Mohsin S. Khan & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices," IMF Occasional Papers 112, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Borenzstein, Eduardo & Khan, Mohsin & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 8198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
- Deaton, A., 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica," Papers 186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- W. Bruce Canoles & Sarahelen Thompson & Scott Irwin & Virginia Grace France, 1998. "An analysis of the profiles and motivations of habitual commodity speculators," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 765-801, October.
- Canoles, W. Bruce & Thompson, Sarahelen R. & Irwin, Scott H. & France, Virginia G., 1997. "An Analysis Of The Profiles And Motivations Of Habitual Commodity Speculators," ACE OFOR Reports 14768, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
- W. Bruce Canoles & Sarahelen R. Thompson & Scott H. Irwin & Virginia G. France & ., 1997. "An Analysis of the Profiles and Motivations of Habitual Commodity Speculators," Finance 9705001, EconWPA.
- Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1996. "Noise Trader Demand in Futures Markets," Finance 9609001, EconWPA.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1996. "Noise Trade Demand In Futures Markets," ACE OFOR Reports 14765, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/155, International Monetary Fund.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Newbery, David M, 1989. "The Theory of Food Price Stabilisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1065-1082, December.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, "undated". "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.