IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/8198.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Borenzstein, Eduardo
  • Khan, Mohsin
  • Wickham, Peter

Abstract

The need to understand the factors that influence the behavior of commodity prices has taken on a special urgency in recent years, as nonoil real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s. Since their short-lived recovery in 1984, real non-oil commodity prices have fallen by about 45 percent, translating into a sharp deterioration in the terms of trade for most commodity-dependent exporters. As Chart 1 illustrates, in 1992 the price of non-oil commodities relative to that of manufactures reached its lowest level in over 90 years.1 The longterm behavior of real commodity prices would thus appear to lend some support to the well-known Pre bisch-Singer hypothesis.2 This pattern in commodity prices has important practical implications for policymakers. For example, the presence of a negative trend in commodity prices implies continuously worsening terms of trade for many commodity-dependent countries, and further that efforts to stabilize the incomes of producers for an extended period of time may not be financially sustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen & Borenzstein, Eduardo & Khan, Mohsin & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 8198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8198
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8198/1/MPRA_paper_8198.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Reitz & Frank Westerhoff, 2007. "Commodity price cycles and heterogeneous speculators: a STAR–GARCH model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 231-244, September.
    2. Peretto, Pietro F. & Valente, Simone, 2011. "Resources, innovation and growth in the global economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 387-399.
    3. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    4. Loza Tellería, Gabriel, 2002. "El shock de precios de los productos básicos en Bolivia," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    5. Sapsford, David & Singer, Hans, 1998. "The IMF, the world bank and commodity prices: A case of shifting sands?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(9), pages 1653-1660, September.
    6. Calista Cheung, 2009. "Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation?," Discussion Papers 09-5, Bank of Canada.
    7. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 270-283, August.
    8. Dooley, Gillian & Lenihan, Helena, 2005. "An assessment of time series methods in metal price forecasting," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 208-217, September.
    9. Pietro F. Peretto & Simone Valente, 2010. "Resource Wealth, Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 10/124, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    10. Luis E. Arango & Fernando Arias & Adriana Flórez, 2012. "Determinants of commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 135-145, January.
    11. Cristian Wieland & Frank Westerhoff, 2004. "A behavioral cobweb model with heterogeneous speculators," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 171, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-2.
    13. R.A. Greig, 1995. "Global Metal Markets: Accounting for performance (Part 1/3)," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 95-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    14. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Interacting cobweb markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 461-481, September.
    15. Daniel Cohen & Thibault Fally & Sébastien Villemot, 2007. "Commodity Funds: How To Fix Them?," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 32, OECD Publishing.
    16. Daniel Cohen & Hélène Djoufelkit-Cottenet & Pierre Jacquet & Cécile Valadier, 2008. "Lending to the Poorest Countries: A New Counter-Cyclical Debt Instrument," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 269, OECD Publishing.
    17. Raphael Bergoeing, "undated". "Can Nonhomothetic Preferences Explain the Post World War II Growth in Trade?," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv105, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    18. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004734, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    19. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ximena Chavarro & Eliana Rocío González, 2012. "Precios de bienes primarios e inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 712, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Westerhoff, Frank & Wieland, Cristian, 2010. "A behavioral cobweb-like commodity market model with heterogeneous speculators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1136-1143, September.
    21. Atanu Ghoshray, 2013. "Dynamic Persistence of Primary Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 153-164.
    22. Bonilla, Eugenio Diaz, 2008. "Global macroeconomic developments and poverty:," IFPRI discussion papers 766, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    23. Plourde, André & Watkins, G. C., 1998. "Crude oil prices between 1985 and 1994: how volatile in relation to other commodities?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 245-262, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.