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How Much Of Commodity Price Behavior Can A Rational Expectations Storage Model Explain?

  • Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa
  • Tomek, William G.

A rational expectations competitive storage model is applied to the U.S. corn market to assess the aptness of this framework in explaining monthly price behavior in an actual commodity market. Relative to previous models, extensive realism is added to the model in terms of how production activities and storage costs are specified. By modeling convenience yield, "backwardation" in prices between crop years does not depend on the unrealistic assumption of zero ending stocks. Our model produces cash prices that are distributed with positive skewness and kurtosis, and mean and variance that increase over the storage season, consistent with the persistence and the occasional spikes observed in commodity prices. Futures prices are generated as conditional expectations of spot prices at contract maturity, and the variances of futures prices have realistic time-to-maturity and seasonal patterns. Model realizations of cash and futures prices over many "years" are used to demonstrate the wide variety of price behaviors that can be observed in an efficient market with a similar market structure, implying that marketing strategies based on short, historical samples of prices to manage price risk can be misleading.

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Paper provided by Kansas State University, Department of Agricultural Economics in its series Staff Papers with number 30712.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ags:ksaesp:30712
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  1. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), August.
  2. Miranda, Mario J, 1998. "Numerical Strategies for Solving the Nonlinear Rational Expectations Commodity Market Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 11(1-2), pages 71-87, April.
  3. Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf & Thomas E. Jackson, 1996. "Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 387-399.
  4. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2000. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 00-wp239, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  5. Goodwin, Barry K. & Roberts, Matthew C. & Coble, Keith H., 2000. "Measurement Of Price Risk In Revenue Insurance: Implications Of Distributional Assumptions," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(01), July.
  6. Lence, Sergio H. & Hayenga, Marvin L., 2001. "On the Pitfalls of Multi-Year Rollover Hedges: The Case of Hedge-To-Arrive Contracts," Staff General Research Papers 1965, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
  8. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06.
  9. Holt, Matthew & Johnson, Stanley R., 1989. "Bounded Price Variation and Rational Expectations in an Endogenous Switching Model of the U.S. Corn Market," Staff General Research Papers 267, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Holt, Matthew T., 1999. "A Linear Approximate Acreage Allocation Model," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
  11. Michaelides, Alexander & Ng, Serena, 2000. "Estimating the rational expectations model of speculative storage: A Monte Carlo comparison of three simulation estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 231-266, June.
  12. Miranowski, John & Tegene, Abebayehu & Huffman, Wallace, 1988. "Dynamic Corn Supply Functions: A Model with Explicit Optimization," Staff General Research Papers 10699, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Miranda, Mario J & Glauber, Joseph W, 1993. "Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models of Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 463-70, August.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521326162 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233.
  16. Ng, Serena, 1996. "Looking for evidence of speculative stockholding in commodity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 123-143.
  17. Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  18. Holt, Matthew T., 1994. "Price-Band Stabilization Programs And Risk: An Application To The U.S. Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December.
  19. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Price Behavior: A Rational Expectations Storage Model of Corn," Working Papers 127682, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  20. Miranda, Mario J & Helmberger, Peter G, 1988. "The Effects of Commodity Price Stabilization Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 46-58, March.
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