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U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenue

  • Lence, Sergio H.
  • Hayes, Dermot J.

A dynamic three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free-market policy, and with pre-FAIR policies. Results suggest that FAIR did not lead to significant increases in long-run price volatility or revenue volatility. The main impact of pre-FAIR, relative to the free-market regime, was to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes. Results also indicate that U.S. grain market volatility in 1995ï¾–2000 was due to fundamental market forces and not to FAIR.

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File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/paper_1779.pdf
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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 1779.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, May 2002, vol. 84 no. 2, pp. 335-351
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:1779
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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  1. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521326162 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kaus, Phillip J. & Fang, Cheng & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Womack, Abner W. & Young, Robert E, 2000. "FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32054, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  3. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  4. Wright, Brian D, 1979. "The Effects of Ideal Production Stabilization: A Welfare Analysis Under Rational Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1011-33, October.
  5. Roy Bailey and Marcus Chambers, . "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Economics Discussion Papers 432, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  6. Lansford, Vernon & Madison, Daniel & Thompson, Wyatt & Willott, Brian & Adams, Gary M. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Chaudhary, Sudhir & Fabiosa, Jaci, 1999. "FAPRI 1999 U.S. Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32049, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  7. repec:ias:cpaper:00-fsr1 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Newbery, D M G & Stiglitz, J E, 1979. "The Theory of Commodity Price Stabilisation Rules: Welfare Impacts and Supply Responses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 799-817, December.
  9. Gisser, Micha, 1993. "Price Support, Acreage Controls, and Efficient Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 584-611, August.
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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