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Do Futures Benefit Farmers?

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  • Lence, Sergio H.

Abstract

Simulations are used to analyze welfare and market- and farm-level effects of making futures available to producers of a storable commodity. Key features of the model are the explicit consideration of dynamic impacts due to inventories, and of aggregate market effects associated with futures adoption by some producers. Application to the natural rubber market shows that futures availability can lead to sizeable market- and farm-level effects. Futures availability enhances consumer welfare, reduces non-adopter welfare, and yields important welfare gains for adopters when their market share is small and welfare losses when they account for a sufficiently large market share.

Suggested Citation

  • Lence, Sergio H., 2008. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12919, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12919
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399.
    2. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April.
    3. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2002. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 335-351.
    4. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2002. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 335-351.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium approach," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122438, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    3. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 2013. "Commodity futures markets: are they an effective price risk management tool for the European wheat supply chain?," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 0(Issue 3), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Christophe Gouel, 2014. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 261-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fabienne Féménia & Alexandre Gohin, 2010. "Faut-il une intervention publique pour stabiliser les marchés agricoles ? Revue des questions non résolues," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(4), pages 435-456.
    6. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2013. "Assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 97-107.
    7. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134712, Agricultural Economics Society.
    8. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Zuppiroli, Marco, 2012. "Effectiveness of hedging within the high price volatility context," Working Papers 142546, Scotland's Rural College (formerly Scottish Agricultural College), Land Economy & Environment Research Group.
    9. Sasha C. Breger Bush, 2010. "The World Bank’s approach to increasing the vulnerability of small coffee producers," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 11310, GDI, The University of Manchester.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity markets; futures; natural rubber; rational expectations; storage model; welfare analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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