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Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium

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  • Gohin, Alexandre
  • Rault, Arnaud

Abstract

Epizootic outbreaks such as Foot and Mouth Disease are of great concern for agriculture. In this paper, we quantify the potential dynamic impacts of such a disease on Brittany, a French region with a strong livestock sector. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with rational expectations that allows us to measure the impacts of culling infected animals and restraining movements of live animals on the livestock sectors and downstream food industries. Our results show that economic losses are spread over many periods even with a one-time shock. The impacts on the primary sectors and downstream food sectors do not move in parallel. The food industries suffer most in the first period while the negative impacts on agriculture are mostly observed thereafter. Credit and wage constraints result in an estimated aggregated loss multiplied by more than 700 per cent. These results challenge the concept of a simple management policy for this disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134712, Agricultural Economics Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aesc12:134712
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George Philippidis & Lionel Hubbard, 2005. "A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Treatment of the Ban on UK Beef Exports: A Note," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 307-312.
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    5. St├ęphane Blancard & Jean-Philippe Boussemart & Walter Briec & Kristiaan Kerstens, 2006. "Short- and Long-Run Credit Constraints in French Agriculture: A Directional Distance Function Framework Using Expenditure-Constrained Profit Functions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 351-364.
    6. Uzawa, H, 1969. "Time Preference and the Penrose Effect in a Two-Class Model of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 628-652, Part II, .
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    10. Keen, Michael, 1990. "Welfare analysis and intertemporal substitution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 47-66, June.
    11. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "On the effectiveness of mutual funds to cope with lasting market risks: The case of FMD in Brittany," 126th Seminar, June 27-29, 2012, Capri, Italy 125994, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamics; CGE; animal disease; catastrophic event; Livestock Production/Industries; Q11; Q18;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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