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Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands

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  • M.-J. J. Mangen
  • A. M. Burrell

Abstract

A sectoral market model and a stochastic epidemiological model were used to simulate the effects of classical swine fever (CSF) epidemics in the Netherlands in 1997--1998. Compulsory EU control measures were implemented. Welfare changes of Dutch stakeholders, as well as government costs, were calculated. In a medium-sized epidemic without export restrictions, pig producers' surplus increased by Euro 502 million, but producers within quarantine areas lost. Consumer surplus fell by Euro 552 million. With a ban on live pig exports, pig producers collectively lost whereas consumers gained or experienced only a small loss. Government costs were lower when exports were banned, although net welfare losses were higher. Net welfare losses increased more than proportionately with epidemic size. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • M.-J. J. Mangen & A. M. Burrell, 2003. "Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 125-154, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:30:y:2003:i:2:p:125-154
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    Cited by:

    1. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium approach," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122438, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Christine Wieck & Simon W. Schlüter & Wolfgang Britz, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza–related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(8), pages 1037-1052, August.
    3. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When is it Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(02), August.
    4. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Lehtonen, Heikki, 2008. "Modelling The Dynamics Of Production Adjustment To Short-Term Market Shocks," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6401, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2013. "Assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 97-107.
    6. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2005. "Ex Ante Vs. Ex Post Bioterrorism Mitigation: Better Safe Than Sorry?," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19191, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Mangen, M. -J. J. & Burrell, A. M. & Mourits, M. C. M., 2004. "Epidemiological and economic modelling of classical swine fever: application to the 1997/1998 Dutch epidemic," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-54, July.
    8. Rude, James & Meilke, Karl D., 2004. "Developing Policy Relevant Agrifood Models," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(02), August.
    9. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134712, Agricultural Economics Society.
    10. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Lehtonen, Heikki, 2014. "Livestock product trade and highly contagious animal diseases," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169759, Agricultural Economics Society.
    11. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Heikkilä, Jaakko & Myyrä, Sami, 2014. "An insurance model to cover losses due to highly contagious animal disease in the Finnish pig sector," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182821, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Arnaud Rault & Stéphane Krebs, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 11-05, INRA UMR SMART-LERECO.
    13. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Burrell, Alison M., 2008. "Art or science? The challenges of publishing peer reviewed papers based on linked models," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(8).
    15. Niemi, Jarkko K. & Lyytikainen, Tapani & Sahlstrom, Leena & Virtanen, Terhi & Lehtonen, Heikki, 2009. "Risk Classification in Animal Disease Prevention: Who Benefits from Differentiated Policy?," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49307, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Garrido, Alberto & Bielza, Maria, 2008. "Income Stabilisation in a Changing Agricultural World: Policy and Tools," 108th Seminar, February 8-9, 2008, Warsaw, Poland 48108, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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