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U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues

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Abstract

Historically, the U.S. government has had a substantial involvement in the agricultural sector. Lence and Hayes use a dynamic, three-commodity, rational-expectations storage model to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free-market policy and with the agricultural policies that preceded the FAIR Act. They show that the transitional payments created to replace the pre-FAIR deficiency payments are much lower than the payments they replaced, which does reduce farm revenues. An important finding of the study is that the main economic impacts of the pre-FAIR scenario, relative to the free-market regime, were to transfer income to farmers and to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to distort prices or to stabilize farm incomes.

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  • Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2000. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Variability of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 00-wp239, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ias:fpaper:00-wp239
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 201601010800006209, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    3. Harsche, Johannes, 2006. "Räumlich Differenzierte Stabilisierungswirkungen Der Europäischen Agrarpolitik In Unterschiedlich Konditionierten Erzeugerregionen In Hessen," 46th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, October 4-6, 2006 14949, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Chang, Chia-Lin & Huang, Biing-Wen & Chen, Meng-Gu & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Modelling the asymmetric volatility in hog prices in Taiwan: The impact of joining the WTO," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1491-1506.
    5. Femenia, Fabienne, 2011. "To Subsidize or Not to Subsidize Private Storage? Evaluation of the Effects of Private Storage Subsidies as an Instrument to Stabilize Agricultural Markets After CAP Reforms," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114360, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Paulson, Nicholas D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2008. "Get a Grip: Should Area Revenue Coverage Be Offered Through the Farm Bill or as a Crop Insurance Program?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(2), August.
    7. Huang, Biing-Wen & Chen, Meng-Gu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Modelling risk in agricultural finance: Application to the poultry industry in Taiwan," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1472-1487.
    8. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Price Behavior: A Rational Expectations Storage Model of Corn," Working Papers 127682, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    9. McPhail, Lihong Lu & Babcock, Bruce A., 2012. "Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 505-513.
    10. Sergio H. Lence, 2009. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 154-167.
    11. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2018. "Modelling volatility spillovers for bio-ethanol, sugarcane and corn spot and futures prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1002-1018.
    12. Vorotnikova, Ekaterina & Asci, Serhat & Seale, James L., Jr., 2013. "Effect of Relative Price Changes of Top Principle Crops on U.S. Farm Land Allocation," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 143099, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Lihong Lu McPhail & Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Short-Run Price and Welfare Impacts of Federal Ethanol Policies," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp468, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    14. Hikaru Hanawa Peterson & William G. Tomek, 2005. "How much of commodity price behavior can a rational expectations storage model explain?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 289-303, November.
    15. Fabienne Féménia & Alexandre Gohin, 2010. "Faut-il une intervention publique pour stabiliser les marchés agricoles ? Revue des questions non résolues," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(4), pages 435-456.
    16. Coble, Keith H. & Thomas, Sarah E. & Miller, J. Corey, 2007. "The Effect of Changing Government Subsidy Programs: An Analysis of Revenue at the Farm level," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34931, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    17. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 3547, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Singerman, Ariel & Hart, Chad E. & Lence, Sergio H., 2012. "Revenue Protection for Organic Producers: Too Much or Too Little?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(3), December.
    19. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
    20. Mark, Tyler B. & Detre, Joshua & D'Antoni, Jeremy & Mishra, Ashok, 2012. "Factors Influencing Farm Operator Expectations on Future Levels of Government Support," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.
    21. Lihong Lu McPhail & Bruce A. Babcock, 2008. "Ethanol, Mandates, and Drought: Insights from a Stochastic Equilibrium Model of the U.S. Corn Market," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp464, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    22. Femenia, Fabienne, 2010. "Impacts of Stockholding Behaviour on Agricultural Market Volatility: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 59(3).
    23. Williams, J., 2013. "Wheat and corn price skewness and volatility: Risk management implications for farmers and end users," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 21.
    24. Chang, C-L. & Huang, B-W. & Chen, M-G., 2010. "Modelling the Asymmetric Volatility in Hog Prices in Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-46, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    25. Femenia, Fabienne, 2012. "Should private storage be subsidized to stabilize agricultural markets after price support schemes are removed?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1205, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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