IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/faoaes/289079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do futures benefit farmers who adopt them?

Author

Listed:
  • Lence, Sergio H.

Abstract

The present study shows how to use a simulation approach to quantify the effects of making a futures market available on adopting farmers' behavior and welfare, and its impact on market variables such as spot prices. Relevant constraints often faced by commodity producers, such as credit restrictions or lack of markets for staple crops, are explicitly considered. Aggregate market effects associated with the adoption of futures by a group of producers are also incorporated. Under the chosen parameterizations, futures availability affects various aspects of adopters' behavior. Futures availability renders consumers better off and non-adopting producers worse off. Farmers who adopt futures gain if their market share is small, but lose if their market share is large. However, the magnitudes of adopters' gains or losses are quite small, especially when compared to the welfare effects resulting from alternative changes in the market environment faced by farmers, such as the relaxation of credit restrictions or the opening of a market for food crops. The impact of making futures available on the spot market is quite modest, regardless of whether the share of adopters is small or large.

Suggested Citation

  • Lence, Sergio H., 2003. "Do futures benefit farmers who adopt them?," ESA Working Papers 289079, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:faoaes:289079
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.289079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/289079/files/a-ae053t.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.289079?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald Britto, 1984. "The Simultaneous Determination of Spot and Futures Prices in a Simple Model with Production Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(2), pages 351-365.
    2. Geweke, John, 1988. "Antithetic acceleration of Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 73-89.
    3. Marcel Fafchamps, 1992. "Cash Crop Production, Food Price Volatility, and Rural Market Integration in the Third World," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(1), pages 90-99.
    4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    5. Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
    6. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    7. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
    8. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Campbell, Robert B, 1985. "The Stabilizing and Welfare Properties of Futures Markets: A Simulation Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 277-303, June.
    9. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399.
    11. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-957, October.
    12. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March.
    13. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April.
    14. Masahiro Kawai, 1983. "Spot and Futures Prices of Nonstorable Commodities Under Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(2), pages 235-254.
    15. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-1387, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sergio H. Lence, 2009. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 154-167.
    2. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2002. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 335-351.
    3. Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes, 2002. "U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 335-351.
    4. Guerra Vallejos, Ernesto & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Eugenio & Bobenrieth Hochfarber, Juan & Wright, Brian D., 2021. "Solving dynamic stochastic models with multiple occasionally binding constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Tomek, William G. & Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa, 2000. "Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: A Survey," Staff Papers 121140, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    6. Cesar Revoredo, 2000. "On The Solution Of The Dynamic Rational Expectations Commodity Storage Model In The Presence Of Stockholding By Speculators And Processors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 42, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Pieroni, Luca & Ricciarelli, Matteo, 2008. "Modelling dynamic storage function in commodity markets: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1080-1092, September.
    8. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Comparing Numerical Methods for Solving the Competitive Storage Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 267-295, February.
    9. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Jian Li & Jean‐Paul Chavas, 2023. "A dynamic analysis of the distribution of commodity futures and spot prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 122-143, January.
    11. Ruijs, Arjan & Schweigman, Caspar & Lutz, Clemens, 2004. "The impact of transport- and transaction-cost reductions on food markets in developing countries: evidence for tempered expectations for Burkina Faso," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 219-228, December.
    12. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Bryan R. Routledge, 2005. "Equilibrium Commodity Prices with Irreversible Investment and Non-Linear Technology," NBER Working Papers 11864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Zhu, Xiaohong, 2016. "New models to estimate costs of US farm programs," ISU General Staff Papers 3547, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Kofman, Paul & Viaene, Jean-Marie, 2000. "The demise of commodity price agreements: the role of exchange rates and special interests," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 775-805, November.
    15. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2013. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 1-32, November.
    16. Kelley, Clare & Lanot, Gauthier, 2002. "Consumption Patterns Over Pay Periods," Economic Research Papers 269469, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    17. Nicolas Legrand, 2019. "The Empirical Merit Of Structural Explanations Of Commodity Price Volatility: Review And Perspectives," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 639-664, April.
    18. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    19. Shafiqur Rahman & M. Shahid Ebrahim, 2005. "The Futures Pricing Puzzle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 35, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Lusheng Shao & Derui Wang & Xiaole Wu, 2022. "Competitive trading in forward and spot markets under yield uncertainty," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(9), pages 3400-3418, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Community/Rural/Urban Development; Farm Management;

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Perfect Competition
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:faoaes:289079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/faoooit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.