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Spot and Futures Prices of Nonstorable Commodities Under Rational Expectations

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  • Masahiro Kawai

Abstract

The paper examines the effect of the presence of a commodity futures market upon the price formation process in a stochastic rational expectations framework. An optimizing model with price uncertainty and risk aversion is used in order to solve equilibrium distributions of prices for nonstorable commodities. The existence of futures trading does not affect the degree of short-term spot price fluctuations. However, if the commodity market disturbance that originates from stochastic consumption demand is serially dependent, then the long-term price variation is smaller with a futures market than without it. Futures prices fluctuate less variably over time than spot and expected prices. Finally, there exists a futures intervention rule whereby the authority can stabilize spot prices and raise the overall welfare of society.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Kawai, 1983. "Spot and Futures Prices of Nonstorable Commodities Under Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(2), pages 235-254.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:98:y:1983:i:2:p:235-254.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1885623
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lence, Sergio H., 2002. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers Who Adopt Them?," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19768, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Pena-Levano, Luis M. & Ramirez, Octavio & Renteria-Pinon, Mario, 2015. "Efficiency Gains in Commodity Forecasting with High Volatility in Prices using Different Levels of Data Aggregation," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205740, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. ABADA, Ibrahim & EHRENMANN, Andreas & SMEERS, Yves, 2014. "Endogenizing long-term contracts in gas market models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2014036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Sergio H. Lence, 2009. "Do Futures Benefit Farmers?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 154-167.
    5. Pena-Levano, Luis M & Foster, Kenneth, 2016. "Efficiency gains in commodity forecasting using disaggregated levels versus more aggregated predictions," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235792, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, July.
    7. Lusheng Shao & Derui Wang & Xiaole Wu, 2022. "Competitive trading in forward and spot markets under yield uncertainty," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(9), pages 3400-3418, September.
    8. Dennis, Steven A. & Sim, Ah Boon, 1999. "Share price volatility with the introduction of individual share futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 153-163, June.
    9. Dana G. Popescu & Sridhar Seshadri, 2013. "Demand Uncertainty and Excess Supply in Commodity Contracting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 2135-2152, September.
    10. V. V. Chari & Ravi Jagannathan, 1990. "The simple analytics of commodity futures markets: do they stabilize prices? Do they raise welfare?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 4(Sum), pages 12-24.
    11. Wu, D. J. & Kleindorfer, P. R. & Zhang, Jin E., 2002. "Optimal bidding and contracting strategies for capital-intensive goods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 657-676, March.
    12. D. J. Wu & Paul R. Kleindorfer, 2005. "Competitive Options, Supply Contracting, and Electronic Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(3), pages 452-466, March.
    13. Kofman, Paul & Viaene, Jean-Marie, 2000. "The demise of commodity price agreements: the role of exchange rates and special interests," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 775-805, November.
    14. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Dramane Coulibaly, 2011. "Index trading and agricultural commodity prices: A panel Granger causality analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 51-71.
    15. Hubbard, R Glenn & Weiner, Robert J, 1992. "Long-Term Contracting and Multiple-Price Systems," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 177-198, April.
    16. Alexandre Vasconcelos Lima & Rogério Boueri Miranda & Mathias Schneid Tessmann, 2022. "Evaluation of the Future Price of Brazilian Commodities as a Predictor of the Price of the Spot Market," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(4), pages 1-51, April.
    17. Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar & Siang‐Choo Chan, 1992. "Rational Expectations and Price Determination in the US Oats Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 68(S1), pages 16-26, December.
    18. Ç Haksöz & S Seshadri, 2007. "Supply chain operations in the presence of a spot market: a review with discussion," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(11), pages 1412-1429, November.
    19. Lingxiu Dong & Hong Liu, 2007. "Equilibrium Forward Contracts on Nonstorable Commodities in the Presence of Market Power," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 128-145, February.
    20. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    21. Wolfgang Bessler & Wolfgang Drobetz & Jörg Seidel, 2008. "Ship funds as a new asset class: An empirical analysis of the relationship between spot and forward prices in freight markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(2), pages 102-120, July.
    22. Dalheimer, Bernhard & Brümmer, Bernhard & Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali, 2017. "Impacts of Export Restrictions on Food Price Volatility: Evidence from VAR-X and EGARCH-X Models," 57th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 13-15, 2017 262151, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    23. Haim Mendelson & Tunay I. Tunca, 2007. "Strategic Spot Trading in Supply Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 742-759, May.
    24. Augusto Castillo R. & Rafael Aguila, 2005. "Estrategias Optimas De Cobertura En Presencia De Incertidumbre En Costos Y Cantidad," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 8(2), pages 88-110.

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