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Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

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  • Gunther Capelle-Blancard
  • Dramane Coulibaly

Abstract

This paper investigates the causality between prices and index-based trading activity for twelve grain, livestock, and other soft commodity futures markets. We use panel Granger causality estimations based on SUR systems and Wald tests with market-specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for causality on each market by accounting for the possible contemporaneous dependence across markets. Our results confirm that there is no causality between index-based positions and commodity futures prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Dramane Coulibaly, 2011. "Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis," Working Papers 2011-28, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ederer, Stefan & Heumesser, Christine & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "The role of fundamentals and financialisation in recent commodity price developments: An empirical analysis for wheat, coffee, cotton, and oil," Working Papers 42, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
    2. Carl GAIGNÉ & Cathie LAROCHE DUPRAZ & Alan MATTHEWS, 2015. "Thirty years of European research on international trade in food and agricultural products," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 96(1), pages 91-130.
    3. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    6. Libo Yin & Qingyuan Yang & Zhi Su, 2017. "Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 795-812, May.
    7. Benoît Guilleminot & Jean-Jacques Ohana & Steve Ohana, 2014. "The interaction of speculators and index investors in agricultural derivatives markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 767-792, November.
    8. Irwin, Scott H., 2012. "Does the Masters Hypothesis Explain Recent Food Price Spikes?," Working Papers 126944, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
    9. Gozgor, Giray & Kablamaci, Baris, 2014. "The linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices in the light of the perceived global risk," MPRA Paper 58659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Stefan Ederer & Christine Heumesser & Cornelia Staritz, 2016. "Financialization and commodity prices -- an empirical analysis for coffee, cotton, wheat and oil," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 462-487, July.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Technical Trading and Commodity Price Fluctuations," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45238, December.
    12. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2018. "Investor sentiment and market fundamentals: the impact of index investment on energy and metals markets," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 87-102, May.
    13. Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 211-253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
    15. Will, Matthias Georg & Prehn, Sören & Pies, Ingo & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Schadet oder nützt die Finanzspekulation mit Agrarrohstoffen? Ein Literaturüberblick zum aktuellen Stand der empirischen Forschung," Discussion Papers 2012-26, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    16. Khan, Aftab & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Correlation between Islamic stock and Commodity markets: An investigation into the impact of financial crisis and financialization of commodity markets," MPRA Paper 56979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    18. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2016. "The "Necessity" of New Position Limits in Agricultural Futures Markets: The Verdict from Daily Firm-level Position Data," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 292-317.
    19. Stephanie-Carolin Grosche, 2014. "What Does Granger Causality Prove? A Critical Examination of the Interpretation of Granger Causality Results on Price Effects of Index Trading in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 279-302, June.
    20. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2017. "Investor demand, market efficiency and spot-futures relation: Further evidence from crude palm oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-146.
    21. Bohl Martin T., 2016. "Treiben Indexfonds Agrarrohstoffpreise? Nein!," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 155-171, July.
    22. Christopher L. Gilbert & Simone Pfuderer, 2014. "The financialization of food commodity markets," Chapters, in: Raghbendra Jha & Raghav Gaiha & Anil B. Deolalikar (ed.), Handbook on Food, chapter 6, pages 122-148, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculation; financialization; food crisis; soft commodities; index funds; panel Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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