Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis
This paper investigates the causality between prices and index-based trading activity for twelve grain, livestock, and other soft commodity futures markets. We use panel Granger causality estimations based on SUR systems and Wald tests with market-specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for causality on each market by accounting for the possible contemporaneous dependence across markets. Our results confirm that there is no causality between index-based positions and commodity futures prices.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
Web page: http://www.cepii.fr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Stein, Jeremy C., 1987.
"Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation,"
3660740, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Stein, Jeremy C, 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1123-45, December.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009.
"A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence,"
2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri
53050, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross-sectional evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 25-32, 01.
- Fleming, Jeff & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1999. "The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 135-167, April.
- Konya, Laszlo, 2006. "Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 978-992, December.
- repec:oup:qjecon:v:90:y:1976:i:3:p:407-23 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tomek, William G., 1971. "A Note on Historical Wheat Prices and Futures Trading," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 01.
- Gunther Capelle-Blancard, 2010.
"Are Derivatives Dangerous? a Literature Survey,"
2010-24, CEPII research center.
- Gunther Capelle-Blancard, 2010. "Are derivatives dangerous? A literature survey," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00608097, HAL.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christophe Hurlin & Elena Dumitrescu, 2012.
"Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels,"
- Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
- Hernandez, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-87, September.
- Gary Gorton & K. Rouwenhorst, 2004.
"Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
amz2619, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
- Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
- repec:oup:qjecon:v:98:y:1983:i:2:p:235-54 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:cii:cepiei:2010-3td is not listed on IDEAS
- Guesnerie, R. & Rochet, J.C., 1993.
"(De)stabilizing Speculation on Futures Markets: an Alternative View Point,"
93.299, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Guesnerie, Roger & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1993. "(De)stabilizing speculation on futures markets : An alternative view point," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1043-1063, June.
- Guesnerie, R. & Rochet, J.C., 1992. "(De)Stabilizing Speculation on Futures Markets: An Alternative View Point," DELTA Working Papers 92-14, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Guesnerie, Roger & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1992. "(De)Stabilizing Speculation on Futures Markets: an Alternative View Point," IDEI Working Papers 15, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- B. Wade Brorsen & Charles M. Oellermann & Paul L. Farris, 1989. "The live cattle futures market and daily cash price movements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 273-282, 08.
- repec:cep:stitep:/1984/92 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986.
"Price Destabilizing Speculation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-52, October.
- Stewart Mayhew, 2002. "Competition, Market Structure, and Bid-Ask Spreads in Stock Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 931-958, 04.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.