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Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

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Listed author(s):
  • Gunther Capelle-Blancard
  • Dramane Coulibaly

Abstract

This paper investigates the causality between prices and index-based trading activity for twelve grain, livestock, and other soft commodity futures markets. We use panel Granger causality estimations based on SUR systems and Wald tests with market-specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for causality on each market by accounting for the possible contemporaneous dependence across markets. Our results confirm that there is no causality between index-based positions and commodity futures prices.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2011-28.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-28
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Keywords: Speculation; financialization; food crisis; soft commodities; index funds; panel Granger causality;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
  • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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  1. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-952, October.
  2. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gunther Capelle-Blancard, 2010. "Are Derivatives Dangerous? A Literature Survey," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 123, pages 67-89.
  4. Guesnerie, Roger & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1993. "(De)stabilizing speculation on futures markets : An alternative view point," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1043-1063, June.
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  7. Gary Gorton & K. Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2619, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
  8. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross-sectional evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 25-32, 01.
  9. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
  10. Fleming, Jeff & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1999. "The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 135-167, April.
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  12. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-1387, September.
  13. Stein, Jeremy C, 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1123-1145, December.
  14. Hernandez, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  15. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
  16. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  17. Konya, Laszlo, 2006. "Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 978-992, December.
  18. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
  19. B. Wade Brorsen & Charles M. Oellermann & Paul L. Farris, 1989. "The live cattle futures market and daily cash price movements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 273-282, 08.
  20. Stewart Mayhew, 2002. "Competition, Market Structure, and Bid-Ask Spreads in Stock Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 931-958, 04.
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Cited by:

  1. Ederer, Stefan & Heumesser, Christine & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "The role of fundamentals and financialisation in recent commodity price developments: An empirical analysis for wheat, coffee, cotton, and oil," Working Papers 42, Österreichische Forschungsstiftung für Internationale Entwicklung (ÖFSE) / Austrian Foundation for Development Research.
  2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
  4. Irwin, Scott H., 2012. "Does the Masters Hypothesis Explain Recent Food Price Spikes?," Working Papers 126944, Structure and Performance of Agriculture and Agri-products Industry (SPAA).
  5. Gozgor, Giray & Kablamaci, Baris, 2014. "The linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices in the light of the perceived global risk," MPRA Paper 58659, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
  7. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
  8. Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 211-253 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Stephanie-Carolin Grosche, 2014. "What Does Granger Causality Prove? A Critical Examination of the Interpretation of Granger Causality Results on Price Effects of Index Trading in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 279-302, 06.
  10. Christopher L. Gilbert & Simone Pfuderer, 2014. "The financialization of food commodity markets," Chapters,in: Handbook on Food, chapter 6, pages 122-148 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  11. Khan, Aftab & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Correlation between Islamic stock and Commodity markets: An investigation into the impact of financial crisis and financialization of commodity markets," MPRA Paper 56979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Bohl Martin T., 2016. "Treiben Indexfonds Agrarrohstoffpreise? Nein!," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 155-171, July.

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