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Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

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  • Gunther Capelle-Blancard
  • Dramane Coulibaly

Abstract

This paper investigates the causality between prices and index-based trading activity for twelve grain, livestock, and other soft commodity futures markets. We use panel Granger causality estimations based on SUR systems and Wald tests with market-specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for causality on each market by accounting for the possible contemporaneous dependence across markets. Our results confirm that there is no causality between index-based positions and commodity futures prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Dramane Coulibaly, 2011. "Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis," Working Papers 2011-28, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-28
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculation; financialization; food crisis; soft commodities; index funds; panel Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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