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Index Trading and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

  • Gunther Capelle-Blancard
  • Dramane Coulibaly

This paper investigates the causality between prices and index-based trading activity for twelve grain, livestock, and other soft commodity futures markets. We use panel Granger causality estimations based on SUR systems and Wald tests with market-specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for causality on each market by accounting for the possible contemporaneous dependence across markets. Our results confirm that there is no causality between index-based positions and commodity futures prices.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2011-28.

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Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2011-28
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  1. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  2. Stein, Jeremy C., 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Scholarly Articles 3660740, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  3. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence," 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri 53050, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
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  5. Konya, Laszlo, 2006. "Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 978-992, December.
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  7. Tomek, William G., 1971. "A Note on Historical Wheat Prices and Futures Trading," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 01.
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  9. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  10. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Christophe Hurlin & Elena Dumitrescu, 2012. "Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers halshs-00224434, HAL.
  12. Hernandez, Manuel & Torero, Maximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  13. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-87, September.
  14. Gary Gorton & K. Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2619, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2005.
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  18. Guesnerie, R. & Rochet, J.C., 1993. "(De)stabilizing Speculation on Futures Markets: an Alternative View Point," Papers 93.299, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  19. B. Wade Brorsen & Charles M. Oellermann & Paul L. Farris, 1989. "The live cattle futures market and daily cash price movements," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 273-282, 08.
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  21. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-52, October.
  22. Stewart Mayhew, 2002. "Competition, Market Structure, and Bid-Ask Spreads in Stock Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 931-958, 04.
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