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The effect of net positions by type of trader on volatility in foreign currency futures markets

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  • Wang, Changyun

Abstract

We investigate the effect of net positions by type of trader on return volatility in six foreign currency futures markets using the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) data. When net positions are decomposed into expected and unexpected components, we find that expected net positions by type of trader generally do not co-vary with volatility. However, volatility is positively associated with shocks (in either direction) in net positions of speculators and small traders, and negatively related to shocks (in either direction) in net positions of hedgers. This evidence suggests that changes in speculative positions destabilize the market. Consistent with dispersion of beliefs models and noise trading theories, hedgers appear to possess private information, whereas speculators and small traders are less informed in these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Changyun, 2001. "The effect of net positions by type of trader on volatility in foreign currency futures markets," MPRA Paper 36428, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2001.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Clements & Neda Todorova, 2014. "The impact of information flow and trading activity on gold and oil futures volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 102, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
    3. Yu-Lun Chen & Yin-Feng Gau & Wen-Ju Liao, 2016. "Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 793-818, May.
    4. S. Bhaumik & M. Karanasos & A. Kartsaklas, 2008. "Derivatives Trading and the Volume-Volatility Link in the Indian Stock Market," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp935, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    5. Hossfeld, Oliver & Röthig, Andreas, 2016. "Do speculative traders anticipate or follow USD/EUR exchange rate movements? New evidence on the efficiency of the EUR currency futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 218-225.
    6. Bohl, Martin T. & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Spot Prices? New Evidence for Commodity Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(04), November.
    7. Tokic, Damir, 2012. "Speculation and the 2008 oil bubble: The DCOT Report analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 541-550.
    8. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    9. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:250-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Umutlu, Mehmet & Shackleton, Mark B., 2015. "Stock-return volatility and daily equity trading by investor groups in Korea," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 43-70.
    11. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Tamvakis, Michael, 2016. "Market conditions, trader types and price–volume relation in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 134-149.
    12. Sanders, Dwight R. & Boris, Keith & Manfredo, Mark, 2004. "Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 425-445, May.
    13. Ahn, Hee-Joon & Cai, Jun & Hamao, Yasushi & Melvin, Michael, 2014. "Little guys, liquidity, and the informational efficiency of price: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange on the effects of small investor participation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 163-181.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign currency exchange futures; return predictability;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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