IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hrv/faseco/3660740.html

Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation

Author

Listed:
  • Stein, Jeremy C.

Abstract

Introducing more speculators into the market for a given commodity leads to improved risk sharing but can also change the informational content of prices. This inflicts an externality on those traders already in the market, whose ability to make inferences based on current prices will be affected. In some cases, the externality is negative: the entry of new speculators lowers the informativeness of the price to existing traders. The net result can be one of price destabilization and welfare reduction. This is true even when all agents are rational, risk-averse, competitors who make the best possible use of their available information.

Suggested Citation

  • Stein, Jeremy C., 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Scholarly Articles 3660740, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3660740
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3660740/Stein_InformationalExternalities.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    2. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-1317, July.
    3. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "The Determination of Spot and Futures Prices with Storable Commodities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1363-1387, September.
    4. Stephen W. Salant, 1974. "Profitable speculation, price stability, and welfare," International Finance Discussion Papers 54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1978. "Information, futures prices, and stabilizing speculation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-98, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmet Enis Kocagil, 1997. "Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 115-125.
    2. repec:isu:genstf:1993010108000011461 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zant, Wouter, 2001. "Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-710, April.
    4. Arzu Uluc, 2018. "Stabilising House Prices: the Role of Housing Futures Trading," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 587-621, May.
    5. Dionne, Georges & Santugini, Marc, 2014. "Entry, imperfect competition, and futures market for the input," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 70-83.
    6. Richard D. Farmer, 2006. "Risk-Smoothing Across Time and the Demand for Inventories: A Mean-Variance Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 699-722, Fall.
    7. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 1998. "Endogenous market statistics and security pricing:: An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 285-319, September.
    8. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 346-369.
    9. Glauber, Joseph W. & Powers, Nicholas J., 1985. "Inventory and Hedging Decision-Making Under A Multi-Period Planning Horizon and Price Uncertainty," 1985 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Ames, Iowa 278562, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Palm, F.C. & Vogelvang, E., 1985. "An econometric analysis of the short-run demand for coffee," Serie Research Memoranda 0017, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    11. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Commodity price forecasts and futures prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 436, The World Bank.
    12. Hubbard, R Glenn & Weiner, Robert J, 1992. "Long-Term Contracting and Multiple-Price Systems," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 177-198, April.
    13. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, . "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School, number 0115, December.
    14. Bohl, Martin T. & Diesteldorf, Jeanne & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 207-224.
    15. Patrick Artus, 1990. "Quand la création d'un marché à terme peut-elle déstabiliser le cours au comptant ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(1), pages 71-94.
    16. Lusheng Shao & Derui Wang & Xiaole Wu, 2022. "Competitive trading in forward and spot markets under yield uncertainty," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(9), pages 3400-3418, September.
    17. Hernandez, Manuel A. & Torero, Máximo, 2010. "Examining the dynamic relationship between spot and future prices of agricultural commodities," IFPRI discussion papers 988, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Campbell, Robert B. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1985. "An analysis of the stabilizing and welfare effects of intervention in spot and futures markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 165-209, November.
    19. Mihaela Nicolau, 2012. "Do Spot Prices Move towards Futures Prices? A study on Crude Oil Market," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 5(5), pages 166-176, October.
    20. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Dramane Coulibaly, 2011. "Index trading and agricultural commodity prices: A panel Granger causality analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 51-71.
    21. Bassam Fattouh & Lavan Mahadeva, 2014. "Causes and Implications of Shifts in Financial Participation in Commodity Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 757-787, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:3660740. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Office for Scholarly Communication (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deharus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.