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Causality In Futures Markets

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  • Bryant, Henry L.
  • Bessler, David A.
  • Haigh, Michael S.

Abstract

This research investigates various unresolved issues regarding futures markets, using formal methods appropriate for inferring causal relationships from observational data when some relevant quantities are hidden. We find no evidence supporting the generalized version of Keynes's theory of normal backwardation. We find no evidence supporting theories that predict that the level of activity of speculators or uninformed traders affects the level of price volatility, either positively or negatively. Our evidence strongly supports the mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH) that trading volume and price volatility have one or more latent common causes, resulting in their positive correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryant, Henry L. & Bessler, David A. & Haigh, Michael S., 2003. "Causality In Futures Markets," Working Papers 28574, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:umdrwp:28574
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.28574
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee A. Smales, 2022. "Trading Behavior in Agricultural Commodity Futures around the 52-Week High," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, June.
    2. Sung Je Byun, 2017. "Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    3. Ji, Qiang & Bahloul, Walid & Geng, Jiang-Bo & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Trading behaviour connectedness across commodity markets: Evidence from the hedgers’ sentiment perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel Robe, 2017. "Information Flows across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices," Post-Print hal-01781761, HAL.
    5. Çınar, Gökhan & Uzmay, Ayse, 2017. "Does Fear (Vix Index) Incite Volatility In Food Prices?," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 5(2), April.
    6. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    7. Qingjie Zhou & Panpan Zhu & You Wu & Yinpeng Zhang, 2022. "Research on the Volatility of the Cotton Market under Different Term Structures: Perspective from Investor Attention," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-20, November.
    8. Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas & Wanner, Markus, 2017. "Financialization of metal markets: Does futures trading influence spot prices and volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 300-316.
    9. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    10. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    11. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 25-32, January.
    12. Slutskin, L., 2017. "Graphical Statistical Methods for Studying Causal Effects. Bayesian Networks," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 12-30.
    13. Georg Lehecka, 2015. "Do hedging and speculative pressures drive commodity prices, or the other way round?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 575-603, September.
    14. Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos & Alice Carole Thomas & Jianxin Wang, 2024. "Hedging pressure and oil volatility: Insurance versus liquidity demands," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 252-280, February.
    15. Ziran Li & Dermot J. Hayes, 2022. "The hedging pressure hypothesis and the risk premium in the soybean reverse crush spread," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 428-445, March.
    16. Dwight R. Sanders and Scott H. Irwin, 2013. "Measuring Index Investment in Commodity Futures Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    17. Jabir Ali & Kriti Bardhan Gupta, 2011. "Efficiency in agricultural commodity futures markets in India," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(2), pages 162-178, August.
    18. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    19. Adam E. Clements & Neda Todorova, 2016. "Information Flow, Trading Activity and Commodity Futures Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 88-104, January.
    20. Hoang, Nam & Grieb, Terrance, 2018. "Hedging Positions, Basis, and Futures Risk Premium: A Disaggregated Data Analysis on US Wheat Markets," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273799, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    22. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    23. Tore S. Kleppe & Atle Oglend, 2019. "Can limits‐to‐arbitrage from bounded storage improve commodity term‐structure modeling?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 865-889, July.
    24. Christian Koziol & Tilo Treuter, 2019. "How do speculators in agricultural commodity markets impact production decisions and commodity prices? A theoretical analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), pages 718-743, June.

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