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Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs

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  • Michael S. Haigh

    (U.S. CFTC and University of Maryland)

  • David A. Bessler

    (Texas A&M University)

Abstract

Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG's) and Error Correction Models (ECM's) are employed to analyze questions of price discovery between spatially separated commodity markets and the transportation market linking them together. Results from our analysis suggest these markets are highly interconnected but it is the inland commodity market that is strongly influenced by both the transportation and commodity export markets. However, the commodity markets affect the volatility of the transportation market over longer horizons. Our results suggest that transportation rates are critical in the price discovery process lending support for the recent development of exchange traded barge rate futures contracts.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:77:y:2004:i:4:p:1099-1098
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessio Moneta, 2003. "Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressions," LEM Papers Series 2003/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Xu, Xiaojie, 2014. "Causality and Price Discovery in U.S. Corn Markets: An Application of Error Correction Modeling and Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169806, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Peter G. Fennell & David O'Sullivan & Antoine Godin & Stephen Kinsella, 2014. "Visualising stock flow consistent models as directed acyclic graphs," Papers 1409.4541, arXiv.org.
    4. Meghana Ayyagari & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2008. "How Important Are Financing Constraints? The Role of Finance in the Business Environment," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(3), pages 483-516, November.
    5. Alessio Moneta, 2008. "Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 275-300, September.
    6. Andrew Rettenmaier & Zijun Wang, 2013. "What determines health: a causal analysis using county level data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(5), pages 821-834, October.
    7. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Contemporaneous causal orderings of US corn cash prices through directed acyclic graphs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 731-758, March.
    8. Bizimana, Jean-Claude & Bessler, David A. & Angerer, Jay P., 2013. "Impact of Market Information System (E-Soko) on Beans Markets Integration: Case of Rwanda," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142734, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Anton-Erxleben, Katharina & Kibriya, Shahriar & Zhang, Yu, 2016. "Bullying as the main driver of low performance in schools: Evidence from Botswana, Ghana, and South Africa," MPRA Paper 75555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Yang, Jian & Bessler, David A., 2008. "Contagion around the October 1987 stock market crash," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 291-310, January.
    11. Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2009. "The Price Shock Transmission during the 2007-2008 Commodity Bull Cycle: A Structural Vector Auto-Regression Approach to the "Chicken-or-Egg" Problem," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49538, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Henry L. Bryant & David A. Bessler & Michael S. Haigh, 2006. "Causality in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(11), pages 1039-1057, November.
    13. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Hoffman, Linwood A., 2015. "Price Discovery and Risk Management in the U.S. Distiller’s Grain Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205125, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    14. Michael Margolis, 2017. "Graphs as a Tool for the Close Reading of Econometrics (Settler Mortality is not a Valid Instrument for Institutions)," Economic Thought, World Economics Association, vol. 6(1), pages 56-82, March.
    15. Wang, Zijun, 2012. "The causal structure of bond yields," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 93-102.
    16. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
    17. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(03), November.
    18. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud, 2012. "Systemic risk in energy derivative markets: a graph theory analysis," Post-Print halshs-00738201, HAL.
    19. Wang, Zijun, 2010. "Dynamics and causality in industry-specific volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1688-1699, July.
    20. Bizimana, Jean-Claude & Bessler, David A. & Angerer, Jay P., 2016. "The 2010-2011 Drought Impacts on Cattle Market Integration in the Horn of Africa: A preliminary Evaluation using VAR and Structural Break Analysis," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229991, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    21. Alessio Moneta & Peter Spirtes, 2005. "Graph-Based Search Procedure for Vector Autoregressive Models," LEM Papers Series 2005/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    22. Franken, Jason R.V. & Cook, Michael L., 2013. "Impact of Board Structure and Process on Cooperative Performance," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149420, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    23. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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