IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jcommo/v1y2022i1p2-17d844212.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trading Behavior in Agricultural Commodity Futures around the 52-Week High

Author

Listed:
  • Lee A. Smales

    (UWA Business School, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA 6009, Australia)

Abstract

Utilizing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment of Traders report, we examine the behavior of traders in three large agricultural futures markets (corn, soybean, and wheat) when prices are at a key technical trading level—the 52-week high (the highest price during the past year). Our empirical results confirm that, consistent with hedging behavior, commercial traders tend to be negative feedback traders, while non-commercial traders tend to be momentum traders. In both cases, there is a moderating effect when the market is at the 52-week high. For non-commercial traders, this effect is concentrated in short positions. Although we find no evidence of a broad market timing ability from any trader type, trader positions appear to be more informative when the market is at the 52-week high. Our results have implications for traders attempting to time market entry.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee A. Smales, 2022. "Trading Behavior in Agricultural Commodity Futures around the 52-Week High," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jcommo:v:1:y:2022:i:1:p:2-17:d:844212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2813-2432/1/1/2/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2813-2432/1/1/2/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, 2012. "Speculation and hedging in the currency futures markets: Are they informative to the spot exchange rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 122-151, February.
    2. Changyun Wang, 2003. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, January.
    3. Dirk G. Baur & Lee A. Smales, 2022. "Trading behavior in bitcoin futures: Following the “smart money”," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1304-1323, July.
    4. Krista Schwarz, 2012. "Are speculators informed?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Henry L. Bryant & David A. Bessler & Michael S. Haigh, 2006. "Causality in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(11), pages 1039-1057, November.
    7. Leuthold, Raymond M & Garcia, Philip & Lu, Richard, 1994. "The Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 459-473, July.
    8. Changyun Wang, 2003. "Investor sentiment, market timing, and futures returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 891-898.
    9. Changyun Wang, 2001. "Investor Sentiment and Return Predictability in Agricultural Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(10), pages 929-952, October.
    10. Dunbar, Kwamie & Jiang, Jing, 2020. "What do movements in financial traders’ net long positions reveal about aggregate stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Changyun Wang, 2002. "Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 295-315, May.
    12. Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2011. "Small traders in currency futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 898-914, September.
    13. Hanxiong Zhang & Andrew Urquhart, 2020. "Do momentum and reversal strategies work in commodity futures? A comprehensive study," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 375-409, April.
    14. Qian Shen & Andrew C. Szakmary & Subhash C. Sharma, 2007. "An examination of momentum strategies in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 227-256, March.
    15. Abby Kim, 2015. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Commodity Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 696-714, August.
    16. Mutafoglu, Takvor H. & Tokat, Ekin & Tokat, Hakki A., 2012. "Forecasting precious metal price movements using trader positions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 273-280.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predictability of crypto returns: The impact of trading behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    2. Dirk G. Baur & Lee A. Smales, 2022. "Trading behavior in bitcoin futures: Following the “smart money”," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1304-1323, July.
    3. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predicting inflation expectations: A habit-based explanation under hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Adam E. Clements & Neda Todorova, 2016. "Information Flow, Trading Activity and Commodity Futures Volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 88-104, January.
    5. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 254-270.
    6. Chen, Haojun & Maher, Daniela, 2013. "On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 177-201.
    7. Hossfeld, Oliver & Röthig, Andreas, 2016. "Do speculative traders anticipate or follow USD/EUR exchange rate movements? New evidence on the efficiency of the EUR currency futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 218-225.
    8. Adam Clements & Neda Todorova, 2014. "The impact of information flow and trading activity on gold and oil futures volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 102, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    9. Lee A. Smales, 2016. "Trading behavior in S&P 500 index futures," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 46-55, January.
    10. Yu-Lun Chen & Yin-Feng Gau & Wen-Ju Liao, 2016. "Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 793-818, May.
    11. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
    12. Chang, Ya-Kai & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chou, Robin K. & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2013. "The effectiveness of position limits: Evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4501-4509.
    13. Ji, Qiang & Bahloul, Walid & Geng, Jiang-Bo & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Trading behaviour connectedness across commodity markets: Evidence from the hedgers’ sentiment perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Shimeng Shi, 2022. "Bitcoin futures risk premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2190-2217, December.
    15. Guillermo Llorente & Jiang Wang, 2020. "Trading and information in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1231-1263, August.
    16. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    17. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    18. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    19. Young‐Rae Song & Yong‐Jun Yang & Hyung‐Sik Oh, 2009. "Interaction between Foreign and Domestic Investors in the Korean Stock and Futures Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 249-267, June.
    20. Lai, Ya-Wen & Lin, Chiou-Fa & Tang, Mei-Ling, 2017. "Mispricing and trader positions in the S&P 500 index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 250-265.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jcommo:v:1:y:2022:i:1:p:2-17:d:844212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.