On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal
This study examines the information role of large S&P500 futures trades (commercial, noncommercial, dealers, asset managers, and hedge funds) in shaping index returns. Using consolidated data across both standard and E-mini futures contracts, we find that commercial firms’ net trading level appears positively correlated with future index returns but the relationship is not stable across time. Based on more recent data, amongst specialist traders, hedge funds appear superior in terms of access to information and/or trading ability but this advantage is only preserved at high frequency. Therefore, the current weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report – published with a 3-day delay – prevents timely public access to this type of information. Also, trading signals generated by a popular, position-based sentiment index do not produce significant average returns. Overall, this calls into question the reliability of COT-based trading signals used by market professionals.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Roon, F.A. & Nijman, T.E. & Veld, C.H., 2000. "Hedging pressure effects in futures markets," Other publications TiSEM 3dfe2c9f-3194-4751-9b34-1, School of Economics and Management.
- Anders Wilhelmsson, 2006. "Garch forecasting performance under different distribution assumptions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 561-578.
- Chakravarty, Sugato, 2001.
"Stealth-trading: Which traders' trades move stock prices?,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 289-307, August.
- Sugato Chakravarty, 2002. "Stealth-Trading: Which Traders' Trades Move Stock Prices?," Finance 0201003, EconWPA.
- Stefan Nagel, 2011.
NBER Working Papers
17653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Merton, Robert C., 1987.
"A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information,"
1869-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1987. " A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Frans A. de Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, 06.
- Schmeling, Maik, 2006.
"Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk,"
Hannover Economic Papers (HEP)
dp-337, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
- Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
- Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2008. "Do large hedgers and speculators react to events? A stability and events analysis," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 259-267.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Alexander F. Wolff, 2013. "Investor sentiment and stock prices in the subprime mortgage crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1301-1309, August.
- Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-74.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, .
"Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R,"
Journal of Statistical Software,
American Statistical Association, vol. 27(i03).
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
- Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, 2012.
"Speculation and hedging in the currency futures markets: Are they informative to the spot exchange rates,"
Journal of Futures Markets,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 122-151, 02.
- Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, . "Speculation and Hedging in the Currency Futures Markets: Are They Informative to the Spot Exchange Rates," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-116, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
- Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Zhe Zhang, 2009. "Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-term Institutions Better Informed?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 893-924, February.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Leuthold, Raymond M & Garcia, Philip & Lu, Richard, 1994. "The Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 459-73, July.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), August.
- Bin Ke & Kathy Petroni, 2004. "How Informed Are Actively Trading Institutional Investors? Evidence from Their Trading Behavior before a Break in a String of Consecutive Earnings Increases," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 895-927, December.
- Changyun Wang, 2003. "Investor sentiment, market timing, and futures returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 891-898.
- Wang, Changyun, 2001. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," MPRA Paper 36426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2002.
- repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-83944 is not listed on IDEAS
- Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
- Natividad Blasco & Pilar Corredor & Rafael Santamaria, 2009. "Information spillovers between derivative markets with differences in transaction costs and liquidity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1039-1047.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67.
- Krista Schwarz, 2012. "Are speculators informed?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-23, 01.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Boris, Keith & Manfredo, Mark, 2004. "Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 425-445, May.
- Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. " Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-29, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:177-201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.