On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal
This study examines the information role of large S&P500 futures trades (commercial, noncommercial, dealers, asset managers, and hedge funds) in shaping index returns. Using consolidated data across both standard and E-mini futures contracts, we find that commercial firms’ net trading level appears positively correlated with future index returns but the relationship is not stable across time. Based on more recent data, amongst specialist traders, hedge funds appear superior in terms of access to information and/or trading ability but this advantage is only preserved at high frequency. Therefore, the current weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report – published with a 3-day delay – prevents timely public access to this type of information. Also, trading signals generated by a popular, position-based sentiment index do not produce significant average returns. Overall, this calls into question the reliability of COT-based trading signals used by market professionals.
Volume (Year): 27 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Roon, F.A. & Nijman, T.E. & Veld, C.H., 2000.
"Hedging pressure effects in futures markets,"
Other publications TiSEM
3dfe2c9f-3194-4751-9b34-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Changyun Wang, 2003. "Investor sentiment, market timing, and futures returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 891-898.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Hoffmann, Arvid O.I. & Post, Thomas & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2013. "Individual investor perceptions and behavior during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 60-74.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007.
"Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, . "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(i03).
- Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2011. "Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 868-879.
- Merton, Robert C, 1987.
" A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 483-510, July.
- Merton, Robert C., 1987. "A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information," Working papers 1869-87., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Schmeling, Maik, 2007.
"Institutional and individual sentiment: Smart money and noise trader risk?,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 127-145.
- Schmeling, Maik, 2006. "Institutional and Individual Sentiment: Smart Money and Noise Trader Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-337, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Krista Schwarz, 2012. "Are speculators informed?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-23, 01.
- Stefan Nagel, 2012.
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(7), pages 2005-2039.
- Wang, Changyun, 2001. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," MPRA Paper 36426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2002.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Boris, Keith & Manfredo, Mark, 2004. "Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 425-445, May.
- Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Zhe Zhang, 2009. "Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-term Institutions Better Informed?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 893-924, February.
- Leuthold, Raymond M & Garcia, Philip & Lu, Richard, 1994. "The Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 459-73, July.
- Natividad Blasco & Pilar Corredor & Rafael Santamaria, 2009. "Information spillovers between derivative markets with differences in transaction costs and liquidity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1039-1047.
- Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, 2012.
"Speculation and hedging in the currency futures markets: Are they informative to the spot exchange rates,"
Journal of Futures Markets,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 122-151, 02.
- Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, . "Speculation and Hedging in the Currency Futures Markets: Are They Informative to the Spot Exchange Rates," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-116, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
- Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
- Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
- Alexander F. Wolff, 2013. "Investor sentiment and stock prices in the subprime mortgage crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1301-1309, August.
- Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. " Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-29, September.
- Anders Wilhelmsson, 2006. "Garch forecasting performance under different distribution assumptions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(8), pages 561-578.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), August.
- Sugato Chakravarty, 2002.
"Stealth-Trading: Which Traders' Trades Move Stock Prices?,"
- Chakravarty, Sugato, 2001. "Stealth-trading: Which traders' trades move stock prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 289-307, August.
- Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
- Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67.
- Bin Ke & Kathy Petroni, 2004. "How Informed Are Actively Trading Institutional Investors? Evidence from Their Trading Behavior before a Break in a String of Consecutive Earnings Increases," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 895-927, December.
- Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2008. "Do large hedgers and speculators react to events? A stability and events analysis," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 259-267.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:177-201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.