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Speculation and Hedging in the Currency Futures Markets: Are They Informative to the Spot Exchange Rates

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Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis investigating the relationship between the futures trading activities of speculators and hedgers and the potential movements of major spot exchange rates. A set of trader position measures are employed as regression predictors, including the level and change of net positions, an investor sentiment index, extremely bullish/bearish sentiments, and the peak/trough indicators. We find that the peaks and troughs of net positions are generally useful predictors to the evolution of spot exchange rates but other trader position measures are less correlated with future market movements. In addition, speculative position measures usually forecast price-continuations in spot rates while hedging position measures forecast price-reversals in these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, "undated". "Speculation and Hedging in the Currency Futures Markets: Are They Informative to the Spot Exchange Rates," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-116, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:umb:econwp:09116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Clements & Neda Todorova, 2014. "The impact of information flow and trading activity on gold and oil futures volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 102, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
    3. Yu-Lun Chen & Yin-Feng Gau & Wen-Ju Liao, 2016. "Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 793-818, May.
    4. repec:eee:intfin:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:48-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hossfeld, Oliver & Röthig, Andreas, 2016. "Do speculative traders anticipate or follow USD/EUR exchange rate movements? New evidence on the efficiency of the EUR currency futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 218-225.
    6. Anatolyev, Stanislav & Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim & Liu, Xiaochun, 2015. "Foreign exchange predictability during the financial crisis: implications for carry trade profitability," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 254-270.
    8. Babajide Fowowe, 2014. "Paper oil and physical oil: has speculative pressure in oil futures increased volatility in spot oil prices?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(3), pages 356-372, September.
    9. Nicholas Mulligan & Daan Steenkamp, 2018. "Reassessing the information content of the Commitments of Traders positioning data for exchange rate changes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. Chen, Haojun & Maher, Daniela, 2013. "On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 177-201.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spot Exchange Rates; Currency Futures; Speculation; Hedging; Commitments of Traders;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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