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Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets

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  • Wang, Changyun

Abstract

This study examines the usefulness of trader-position-based sentiment index for forecasting future prices in six major agricultural futures markets. It has been found that large speculator sentiment forecasts price continuations. In contrast, large hedger sentiment predicts price reversals. Small trader sentiment hardly forecasts future market movements. An investigation was performed into various sentiment-based timing strategies, and it was found that the combination of extreme large trader sentiments provides the strongest timing signal. These results are generally consistent with the hedging-pressure theory, suggesting that hedgers pay risk premiums to transfer nonmarketable risks in futures markets. Moreover, it does not appear that large speculators in the futures markets possess any superior forecasting ability.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Changyun, 2000. "Investor sentiment and return predictability in agricultural futures markets," MPRA Paper 36425, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2002.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "The impact of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility in U.S. futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 89-102.
    2. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Bermingham, Adam, 2015. "Sentiment in oil markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 179-185.
    3. Yu-Lun Chen & Yin-Feng Gau & Wen-Ju Liao, 2016. "Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 793-818, May.
    4. repec:eee:jrpoli:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:208-218 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Anne Schopp & William Acworth & Daniel Huppmann & Karsten Neuhoff, 2015. "Modelling a Market Stability Reserve in Carbon Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1483, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Karsten Neuhoff & Anne Schopp & Rodney Boyd & Kateryna Stelmakh & Alexander Vasa, 2012. "Banking of Surplus Emissions Allowances: Does the Volume Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1196, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Smales, Lee A., 2016. "Trading behavior in S&P 500 index futures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-55.
    8. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:69-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Cao, Bingqing & Wong, Wing Keung, 2017. "A Principal Component Approach to Measuring Investor Sentiment in Hong Kong," MPRA Paper 77147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 254-270.
    11. He, Ling T. & Casey, K.M., 2015. "Forecasting ability of the investor sentiment endurance index: The case of oil service stock returns and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 121-128.
    12. Utku Uygur & Oktay Taş, 2014. "The impacts of investor sentiment on returns and conditional volatility of international stock markets," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1165-1179, May.
    13. Elina Pradkhan, 2016. "Information Content of Trading Activity in Precious Metals Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 421-456, May.
    14. Yang, Chunpeng & Gao, Bin, 2014. "The term structure of sentiment effect in stock index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 171-182.
    15. Chen, Chen & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Liao, Tzu-Hsiang, 2016. "Risk-neutral skewness and market returns: The role of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 203-225.
    16. Bosch, David & Pradkhan, Elina, 2015. "The impact of speculation on precious metals futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 118-134.
    17. Corredor, Pilar & Ferrer, Elena & Santamaria, Rafael, 2013. "Investor sentiment effect in stock markets: Stock characteristics or country-specific factors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 572-591.
    18. Li, Xin & Ma, Jian & Wang, Shouyang & Zhang, Xun, 2015. "How does Google search affect trader positions and crude oil prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 162-171.
    19. repec:eee:finana:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:176-191 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Claudio Boido & Antonio Fasano, 2015. "CAPM with Sentiment," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 265-288, December.
    21. Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, 2012. "Speculation and hedging in the currency futures markets: Are they informative to the spot exchange rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 122-151, February.
    22. Sanders, Dwight R. & Boris, Keith & Manfredo, Mark, 2004. "Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 425-445, May.
    23. Smales, Lee A., 2014. "News sentiment in the gold futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 275-286.
    24. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Smart Money: The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders in Agricultural Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(2), August.
    25. Williams, J., 2013. "Wheat and corn price skewness and volatility: Risk management implications for farmers and end users," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 21.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; agricultural futures markets; return predictability;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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