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Investor Sentiment Measures

Author

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  • Lily Qiu
  • Ivo Welch

Abstract

This paper compares investor sentiment measures based on consumer confidence surveys with measures extracted from the closed-end fund discount (CEFD). Our evidence suggests that these two kinds of sentiment measures do not correlate well with one another. For a short 2 - 4 year period in which we have direct investor sentiment survey data from UBS/Gallup, only the consumer confidence correlates well with investor sentiment. Further, only the consumer confidence based measure can robustly explain the small-firm return spread and the return spread between stocks held disproportionately by retail investors and those held by institutional investors. Surprisingly, there is even a hint that the consumer confidence measure can explain closed-end fund IPO activity, while the CEFD cannot. In sum, our evidence supports the view that sentiment plays a role in financial markets, but that the CEFD may be the wrong measure of sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Lily Qiu & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Investor Sentiment Measures," NBER Working Papers 10794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10794
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonathan Berk & Richard Stanton, 2004. "A Rational Model of the Closed-End Fund Discount," NBER Working Papers 10412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    3. Chen, Nai-fu & Kan, Raymond & Miller, Merton H, 1993. " Are the Discounts on Closed-End Funds a Sentiment Index?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 795-800, June.
    4. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jonathan A. Parker & Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Luxury Goods and the Equity Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2959-3004, December.
    5. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    6. Lee, Charles M C & Shleifer, Andrei & Thaler, Richard H, 1991. " Investor Sentiment and the Closed-End Fund Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 75-109, March.
    7. John A. Doukas & Nikolaos T. Milonas, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-end Fund Puzzle: Out-of-sample Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(2), pages 235-266.
    8. Matthew Spiegel, 1997. "Closed-End Fund Discounts in a Rational Agent Economy," Finance 9712002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Matthew Spiegel., 1997. "Closed-End Fund Discounts in a Rational Agent Economy," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-276, University of California at Berkeley.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Zhihua & Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Yuejun & Long, Ruyin, 2017. "The contagion effect of international crude oil price fluctuations on Chinese stock market investor sentiment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 27-36.
    2. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:1381370 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Samyschew, Helene, 2017. "The world price of sentiment risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 62-82.
    4. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.
    5. Bethke, Sebastian & Kempf, Alexander & Trapp, Monika, 2013. "The correlation puzzle: The interaction of bond and risk correlation," CFR Working Papers 13-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. repec:eee:ecmode:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:127-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2016. "Sentiment volatility and bank lending behavior," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 107-120.
    8. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Xin Duan, 2010. "A principal-component approach to measuring investor sentiment," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 339-347.
    9. Bucher, Melk C., 2017. "Investor Attention and Sentiment: Risk or Anomaly?," Working Papers on Finance 1712, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    10. Hurst, Gareth & Docherty, Paul, 2015. "Trend salience, investor behaviours and momentum profitability," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 471-484.
    11. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan Ramón & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Pérez-Pico, Ada María, 2016. "Examining the influence of stock market variables on microblogging sentiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 2087-2092.
    12. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
    13. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    14. repec:eee:empfin:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    16. Eugene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2012. "From the horse’s mouth: how do investor expectations of risk and return vary with economic conditions?," Working Paper Series WP-2012-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Michael Nofer & Oliver Hinz, 2015. "Using Twitter to Predict the Stock Market," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 57(4), pages 229-242, August.
    18. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Redfern, Luke, 2009. "Sentiment effects on Chinese share prices and savings deposits: The post-2003 experience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 246-261, June.
    19. Kamini Solanki & Yudhvir Seetharam, 2014. "Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 8(3), September.
    20. M. Zouaoui & G. Nouyrigat & F. Beer, 2010. "How does investor sentiment affect stock market crises? Evidence from panel data," Post-Print halshs-00534754, HAL.
    21. repec:eee:finmar:v:35:y:2017:i:c:p:84-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Eugene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2009. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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