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Investor Sentiment and the Closed-end Fund Puzzle: Out-of-sample Evidence

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  • John A. Doukas
  • Nikolaos T. Milonas

Abstract

In this paper we examine the proposition that small investor sentiment, measured by the change in the discount/premium on closed-end funds, is an important factor in stock returns. We conduct an out-of-sample test of the investor sentiment hypothesis in a market environment that is more likely to be prone to investor sentiment than the USA. We fail to provide supporting evidence for the claim of Lee et al. (1991) that investor sentiment affects the risk of common stocks. Consistent with Elton et al. (1998), who show that investor sentiment does not enter the return generating process, our tests do not detect investor sentiment in a capital market that is more susceptible to small investor sentiment. Our results provide additional support against the claim that investor sentiment represents an independent and systematic asset pricing risk. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Doukas & Nikolaos T. Milonas, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed-end Fund Puzzle: Out-of-sample Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(2), pages 235-266.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:10:y:2004:i:2:p:235-266
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    1. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:218-236 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Schmitz, Philipp & Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2006. "Individual investor sentiment and stock returns - what do we learn from warrant traders?," Papers 06-12, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    3. Gizelis, Demetrios & Chowdhury, Shah, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 71243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Serpil Canbaş & Serkan Yılmaz Kandır, 2009. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 36-52, July.
    5. Lily Qiu & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Investor Sentiment Measures," NBER Working Papers 10794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin, 2013. "An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 909-937, October.
    7. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:285-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Finter, Philipp & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market," CFR Working Papers 10-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Chan, Kalok & Kot, Hung Wan & Li, Desmond, 2008. "Portfolio concentration and closed-end fund discounts: Evidence from the China market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 129-143, June.
    10. Corredor, Pilar & Ferrer, Elena & Santamaria, Rafael, 2013. "Investor sentiment effect in stock markets: Stock characteristics or country-specific factors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 572-591.
    11. Serpil Canbaş & Serkan Yılmaz Kandır, 2009. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(4), pages 36-52, July.
    12. Prashant Das & Julia Freybote & Gianluca Marcato, 2015. "An Investigation into Sentiment-Induced Institutional Trading Behavior and Asset Pricing in the REIT Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 160-189, August.
    13. Flynn, Sean M., 2005. "Noise-trader Risk: Does it Deter Arbitrage, and Is it Priced?," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 69, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    14. Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Samyschew, Helene, 2016. "The pricing of sentiment risk in European stock markets," Discussion Papers 384, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.

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